May 05 2011
The ECB program its next rate hike
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank moves Thursday in Helsinki, according to a well-established ritual of holding its twice yearly conclave off the walls. A deliberate manner to meet the "true European". If market economists are virtually unanimous in excluding any change in interest rates on Thursday they expect the president of the ECB provides specific guidance, at its monthly press conference on the strategy it intends to .
He speaks of "extreme vigilance" on inflation, "would signal a rate hike in June," Jonathan Loynes believes, the chief economist of Capital Economics. Jean-Claude Trichet had used the term encoded on March 3. The markets had immediately concluded that the ECB would raise the following month's rate remained unchanged at 1% since May 2009.The promise was actually held on April 7, despite the disasters that had struck the meantime Japan.
A new security crackdown in June is not the assumption of the majority of experts. They recall that during the two previous phases of monetary tightening experienced since its inception in January 1999, the ECB waited three months before continuing its march forward. However, there is no doubt that central bankers in Frankfurt will launch a second strike in the summer, probably in July. "If Trichet had expressed its" extreme vigilance "on March 3, he had risen to 2.3% while its inflation projections for 2011. But the consumer price already showing an increase of 2.8% over the last twelve months and now we are heading towards a figure of 3% over the year.The ECB will have no mood to continue the cylce of rising interest rates, analysis Bruno Cavalier, an economist at Oddo Securities.
Besides the issue of interest rates, Jean-Claude Trichet, speaking on behalf of 23 members of the Governing Council will be asked about the pursuit of so-called "unconventional" monetary policy and purchases of securities State set up in pain May 9, 2010. "President Trichet will continue to indicate without any doubt that the program continues. But since there were no purchases during the past four weeks, it is clear that the ECB is increasingly reluctant to maintain such measures in place when it hardens its conventional political " according to Capital Economics.
The ECB president is sure to renew his opposition to any restructuring of the Greek debt, including the ECB holds a substantial share."Of the 75 billion euro government securities bought, more than half of the paper focuses on Greek, whose market price is currently trading at 57% of their face value (of the 10-year bonds), calculates Bruno Cavalier. This shows the potential magnitude of losses to the ECB about these operations, although its purchases have been made at prices already discounted.
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