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The reproduction is better than output. In this season of activity budgets in 2009, from automobiles to zoos, most areas in the commune down. The numbers of births do not appear as brightest. INSEE has identified 821 000 last year, only 7 400 fewer than in 2008. This decline is described as "negligible" by demographers, not even "the line thickness. Especially that 2008 was a leap year, which was added mechanically 2 000 births, INSEE said.

The economic crisis it have no impact on family plans? "For the moment we receive no effect, confirming France Prioux, a researcher at the INED (National Institute of Demographic Studies). This is not the case in South Korea, which announced a fall of 4.4% of births in 2009."More and more people were delayed or canceled their wedding plans during the recession," he told AFP Kim Dong-hoy, head of population studies. The Land of the Morning Calm, with Singapore and Taiwan, who is experiencing the lowest fertility rates in the world (1.15 children per woman of childbearing age).

In the U.S., it is allowed since last summer that the crisis will lead, as is customary, by a decline in births. Only data for 2008 are known, and they show a decline of almost 2% over 2007 (4 247 000, a record 50 years), according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Across the Atlantic, economic cycles and demographic change strictly in parallel, as evidenced by the four previous recessions (1974, 1981, 1991 and 2001).

This determinism is understandable in societies where birth control is more the rule than the exception.The Ireland still offers a cons-almost perfect example. The country traditionally more pronatalist in Europe – 16.9 newborns per thousand inhabitants per year, against 13 in France and 8.3 in Germany – has suffered the most severe recession in the euro area. Despite a fall of 7.5% of GDP last year's births increased 1%, according to estimates by the Directorate of Health. Explanation of the Central Statistics Office: the baby-boom years of 1980, which followed the entry deDublin in the European Union, have become parents.

The problems of income and unemployment are not always the enemy of babies. Some even see an incentive. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate 1992 and theoretician of the family economy, showed a woman who loses her job will be available to raise a child.And the "opportunity cost", as economists say – the income to which he must renounce – will be less than if she had voluntarily quit her job. Also in times of crisis, family values are rising and fertility recovered.

Demographers are nevertheless cautious about the resilience of the French birth rate. As the U.S. federal government last year amounted to 291 $ 570 "price" to raise a child to adulthood, our system of family assistance and public benefits makes probably the "investment" less risky for couples. History shows that despite all our demographic has always responded to crises. "The Great Depression of the 1930s had rarefied births, as the oil shock of 1973.The fertility rate (per woman) fell to its lowest level in post-war (1.66) during the economic recession of 1993, "says Ariane Pailhé in the social portrait of France (2009 edition ). Why would it do differently this time?

Let's bracket the explanation, very controversial, which gives dynamism to the French foreign families. False, according to Insee, "The share of children born to foreign parents, which amounted to 6.9% in 2008 has changed little from 1998 (6.6%). The reality is more mundane, as explained Gilles Pison, demographer at INED: "Since the baby boom of the postwar period, there is a fairly high stability of the predisposition of couples to have kids. What has changed is they have more later.Initially, it helped reduce the annual number of births, then do go through a process of catching up. "Thus the fertility rate is 1.66 children pressed in 1993 to nearly 2 today.

Economic Crisis Will it change the "desire for children? Another focal point on youth unemployment. "It could he delay the time when we" settled "and you have children? It is unfortunate that the records of Vital Statistics do not indicate the rank of new-born of each family. For on the number of first births that the crisis could have the greatest consequences, "warns France Prioux. It is unlikely that France soon lose its leadership position population of the European Union.It hosts over 800 000 babies a year when Germany's powerful product in less than 700 000, despite reproductive capacity but much more numerous untapped.

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"DOCUMENT – The demographic results 2009 (insee.fr)

The crisis is "British banking sector is not that unhappy. With benefit of growing discontent of the English against their traditional banks, Richard Branson, the exuberant creator of the Virgin empire, announced Friday the acquisition of a small regional bank in England, the Church House Trust, with plans to launch Virgin Bank before the end of the year. The acquisition received Friday, the blessing of Constable UK financial sector, the FSA.

The target of Virgin is very modest compared to industry giants. The takeover of the bank based in Yeovil, Somerset, costing only 12.3 million pounds (13.7 million euros).But mostly it allows the financial arm of Virgin to obtain a license for retail banking in Britain, which he was still lacking.

Virgin Money, which claims 2.5 million customers in the United Kingdom, Australia, the United States and South Africa, offers services of credit and savings accounts on the Internet, through partnerships with institutions like Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of America. Virgin Money has justified the choice of Church House Trust explaining that the bank had a very solid, with twice as many deposits (50 million pounds) in its coffers than loans (25 million pounds).

"The financial crisis has tarnished the reputations of several British banks, and Virgin Money will offer a different and better approach to the bank, said Friday Jayne-Anne Gadhia, boss of Virgin Money.

Bank charges challenged

With its excellent public image in areas as diverse as aviation, telephony and mobile Internet, the Virgin Group has a good card to play against the giants jostled both by the financial crisis and by repeated attacks from consumer associations and the policeman of the competition (Office of Fair Trading, OFT). These groups challenge bank charges consistently very high, including penalties for overdrafts.

Richard Branson tried to come into force on the market for retail banking two years ago, making an offer to buy Northern Rock, which had virtually collapsed in 2007, but after several months of hesitation, the government had decided to nationalize.

Despite this setback, Branson still keeps an eye on the Newcastle bank, which was one of the five biggest players for mortgages in Britain, and with healthy activities should soon be sold by the government. In agreement with the European competition, the British state should also require banks it has saved, RBS and Lloyds Banking Group, to divest a significant portion of their branch networks to new entrants in the sector. Opportunities for which are already in the running Virgin Money, the Spanish bank Santander, National Australia Bank and the giant British supermarket Tesco.

China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, all those Asian countries that depend on their exports, feared a return of protectionism, driven by rising unemployment in the world, is not undermined by the weak recovery that seems s 'start on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.

Meeting yesterday, and until Sunday evening in Singapore, the 21 forum member countries of APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation), which also ranks in the United States and Russia call to fight against this temptation with force.In contrast to increasing free trade that will stimulate economic recovery and create new jobs, they say.

The APEC forum, which is celebrating its twenty years, knows whereof he speaks: it accounts for respectively 40% of world population, 51% of GDP (gross domestic product) and 50% of international trade.

Recovery Plans

The exercise is more difficult than in countries that are recovering as fast as China (8% growth expected this year), the risk of overheating point and are "likely to trigger new asset bubbles and estate, "says Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank.Indeed, Hong Kong and Beijing, apartment prices begin to flare, necessitating a very fine management of support plans launched by the Asian countries.

In total, they represent more than 1 000 billion (665.7 billion), including 585 billion for China alone. But no question of suspending them. "We will maintain our policy of economic recovery until a sustained recovery is assured," said the APEC forum, which emphasizes that the expected recovery "is not yet based on solid foundations."

For its part, South Korea, just to finalize its agreement to free trade with the United States.Washington accuses him not to open its automotive market and the day before the U.S. International Trade Commission had to deny Samsung Electronics to sell some of its products overseas because they pirated Japanese licenses.

Saturday and Sunday, the Heads of State of the APEC forum, which will meet in Singapore and will also consider the climate, will certainly a lot to do.