May 17 2011
Brussels Dexia gives pressure
When the European Commission is not happy, she indicated in a letter. According to sources, the States Dexia shareholders received one of these missives comminatory few weeks ago. Since then, the Franco-Belgian bank is boiling. The summits have intensified last week. A strategic committee of the board of directors was held on Monday, the eve of a plenary session where the accounts have been arrested in the first quarter. Reportedly, Pierre Mariani, Dexia's managing director, has called for an acceleration of sales of the group, the risk of large losses.
The European Commission accuses Dexia does not respect the roadmap that it had agreed lip service in February 2010, in consideration of state aid received in 2008. Brussels gives go to Dexia in June to come into compliance.The ultimatum is serious: the Commission has in its hands a "nuclear weapon" which would jeopardize state aid … His criticisms affect the balance of Dexia's balance sheet and profitability of own funds on certain transactions below target. "The Commission's complaints are very technical. But the tone makes it clear that the Commission wants a fight because she never believed in Dexia's business model, "recalls a close case.
Faced with this pressure, Pierre Mariani offers to settle permanently in the past. His plan: sell bulk whole sections of the 138 billion euros of assets under management now in extinction. In political terms, this would allow him to get out once and for all that power relationship with the Permanent Commission. Financially, the arbitration is to anticipate future losses and thus save carrying costs story boost future profitability.The Franco-Belgian bank can afford. It has, in fact, a thick mattress capital drives, with a ratio of 13.4%.
No recapitalization
The bank would therefore not need recapitalization whatever the magnitude of the purge restraint. Until then, sales of portfolio inherited from the past were carried out over the water, almost no impairment. But the debt crisis is not helping European Dexia. The bank just to give Crediop Sabadell and its subsidiaries specialized in the financing of local authorities in Italy and Spain.
Go faster? Reflection is ongoing. New decisive meetings are scheduled in two weeks. The acceleration advocated by Pierre Mariani may please the market, but it has a price.According to preliminary calculations, among many possibilities mentioned, the most radical scenario would result in a potential loss of 2 to 3,000,000,000 euros in 2011. The bitter pill for shareholders of Dexia, the Deposit and the state on the French side, Arco, and other Ethias Holding Communal Belgian side, who had subscribed to a capital increase to 9.90 euros per share in October 2008 – it is now worth less than 3.
Monday, Dexia declined to comment on the assumptions and figures, merely stating: "The group will continue to accelerate the financial restructuring while also investing in its franchises." And remember, proof of soundness, that Dexia has generated 280 basis points from Tier One ratio since late 2008.
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