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How did the aircraft through the crisis?

Experts cabinet Alixpartner highlight the "resilience" rather remarkable aerospace facing a crisis which has "devastated most industries, in the words of Eric Bernardini, Associate Director. After three years of strong growth (+15 to +17%), the slowdown has been severe but the activity remained positive with an increase of 2% in the world. This, in an environment where credit was becoming scarce and expensive.

This resilience reflects the fact that the aviation industry is a long cycle that "smooth" dips and rebounds of activity.When the crisis broke out, the order books are well filled – they are between 6 and 7 years of work with Airbus and Boeing, for example – the U.S. defense budget remains high at over 600 billion dollars and companies will react quickly launching plans for reorganization to optimize their cost base. But the overall increase in activity concealed differences: the regional airline and business aviation have suffered more from the crisis in commercial aviation (aircraft above 110 seats).

What about 2010?

"Do not expect to find pre-crisis levels," warns Eric Bernardini. The first quarter of the year was marked by a 9% drop in shipments compared to the same period of 2009 with 261 aircraft confondues.Cela all categories, while new orders taken are not strong after the fall of 70% of last year.

Several negative factors do not advocate a resumption free. First, the defense budget at best stagnant in the West with a likely decline in the U.S. and cuts already adopted in France, Germany and Great Britain. This marks a break with the period 1999-2009. In ten years, this budget has increased by 167% in the USA, 104% in France, but 181% in Saudi Arabia, Russia 272% and 294% in China. "But in real terms, the EU budget has stagnated, it has instead increased in the rest of the world," the study said.

Then, weak clients in commercial aviation. "With 0.5% margin forecast by 2010, the airline business model is not profitable in the long term," said Thierry Down, Alixpartner partner in the firm.Majors are also increasingly threatened by the rise of new players from the Asia-Pacific region and Middle East policies that lead to acquisitions of new equipment and aggressive pricing as well as the installation in the landscape of low cost.

And in the longer term?

The aviation industry is expected, according Alixpartner remain a growth industry. Thanks to the strength of emerging markets in Asia Pacific and Middle East in the years to come. The study of new aircraft deliveries projected to increase 15% per year by 2028, three times faster than air traffic.

The contract will be subject to strong pressure on prices with the arrival of new competitors in particular on the lucrative segment of the short and medium haul routes.The C-Series from Canada's Bombardier and Mitsubishi MRJ Japanese between 2013 and 2015 and the C-919 Chinese Comac to 2017 (and perhaps also a future large-derived Embraer E-190) will break the duopoly of Airbus Boeing and their A 320 and B 737. The arrival of his new players posed with even more accuité the issue of repowering existing Airbus and Boeing or the launch of new devices.

The pressure on prices will be high on the international defense market, U.S. groups seek growth from outside their borders. And taking probably the way of acquisitions.

What lessons did from the crisis?

Aerospace has been facing the worst crisis of his violent history at a time when she changed her business model.Boeing led the way, followed by Airbus, opting for the outsourcing of whole aircraft to major partners who share the financial risk and industry (risk-sharing partners). The model is not fixed so far, but already he designed a new deal between manufacturers and suppliers of rank 1. "It is evolving towards a model where not only the charges and development will be shared but also the earnings. Some vendors provide penalties for delay if the programs of manufacturers are backlogged. This can be a risky gamble for the supplier but overall, the balance of power balances gradually ", explains Thierry down.

Result: 8.6% in 2009, the profitability of major equipment has become for the first time higher than that of manufacturers that spring to 6.2%.Overall, manufacturers have been penalized by delays in recovery of their new programs (B 787, A 380 and A 400M), which has cost them billions of euros and has weighed on their accounts. Mais ces chiffres globaux cachent à nouveau de grandes disparités et mettent en lumière la faiblesse des acteurs européens par rapports aux géants américains. "In our study, few major European suppliers are well placed. the winners are those who realize a significant part of their business in the United States as the British Cobham, "said Eric Bernardini. The French equipment already handicapped by a structure of costs in euros on a market where the reference currency is the dollar, are particularly poorly placed with margin levels that are almost the double.

It is therefore urgent to organize and optimize its cost structure.Some have understood like a Zodiac, which has returned to acquisitions and has balanced its business conducted in dollars and one conducted in euro. French SMEs are particularly vulnerable because they are too small and no financial base. "Some have understood that they must join forces and others not," note the experts at AlixPartners. In Aerostructures (elements that when assembled form the fuselage of the plane) there is urgency with four players in France (15 in Europe) against the giant American Spirit and subsidiaries of major Japanese companies Mitsubishi and Kawasaki.

Mergers and acquisitions will they return?

Yes, says the study. Especially since they have not stopped but simply slowed during the crisis operations from 238 to 156 between 2008 and 2009. In the first quarter of 2010, we are 51.The Americans who were most active on this front between 2005 and 2009 with 484 operations should continue to play outposts. If Europeans have been rather discreet in number of transactions in the period with the notable exception of Thales, they have been very active if we take the size criteria for acquisitions. Leader in this category, Italy's Finmeccanica. But in none of the categories cited by the study is EADS, the European giant who nevertheless want to ensure complete acquisitions in order to realign its business in the defense and security.

The Aerostructures segment very crumbled, electrical systems and maintenance and repair should experience the largest wave of consolidation, particularly in Europe. In total, the five main players in these three activities controlled only 40%, 40% and 27% market share.

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In a market somewhat reassured by the prospect of quick release of aid to Greece, investors remained cautious almost the whole length of the session.

Then again, once the bamboo. Shortly before 16 hours, the index unscrewed and recasse 3,800 points, 3787 points exactly (-1.4%). In London, the Footsie – 100 lost 0.91% to 5566 points. In Frankfurt, the Dax fell into the red, and more timidly back 0.11% to 6138 points.

Moody's said the drop in grade nine Greek banks regarding their financial and credit solodit?. And Standard & Poor's lowered its rating on Goldman Sachs.The U.S. Justice had opened a criminal investigation against the American investment bank, say several U.S. media including the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post.

On Thursday, the Paris Bourse was rebounded, following strong quarterly results and hope for a speedy realization of the plan of aid to Greece.

News macroeconomic rich

The producer prices rose 0.6% in March in France after rising 0.1% in February, according to Insee. On a year they show an increase of 2.0%.

In the euro area, inflation has accelerated a bit in April, 1.5% over one year after 1.4% in March, according to Eurostat. The unemployment rate remained stable at 10% in March.Note that France has seen the number of jobseekers in category A decline of 0.2% in March.

In the U.S., the publication of the first estimate of U.S. GDP for the first quarter of 2010 will most watched by investors. The figure will be unveiled at 14:30.

Total, biggest drop in the CAC 40

On Friday, Total reported net income up 9% to 2.3 billion euros. The actions of the oil lost 2.55% to 40.8 euros, the biggest drop in the CAC 40, as investors disappointed by Total's production in relation to its competitors.

In the other direction, Michelin, the second largest increase in the index, rose 2.58% to 54.84 euros. The group unveiled Thursday evening tire sales in line with analysts' expectations. The outlook and actions are "a very good entry point" in stock.

S?chilienne-Sidec (4.76% to 24.2 euros) on Thursday posted a turnover increase of 20.6% in the first quarter of 2010 to 66,200,000 euros, after one year of 2009 by disabled 'significant downtime and lower coal prices.

After Exchange, Latecoere publish its annual results.

Around 15 hours, will begin the General Assembly of shareholders of Renault, where the boss, Carlos Ghosn, should be reappointed to head the automaker.

Vinci downturn

Vinci (-0.83% to 41.75 euros) Thursday announced the signing of a Memorandum of exclusivity with Apax Partners to buy investment fund Faceo company specializing in technical maintenance services.

ADP (+0.14% to 62.5 euros): The Union of French airports (UAF) said on Thursday that the volcano Eyjafj?ll Iceland, which has caused paralysis in air traffic from 15 April has lost to French airports with 30 million euros 16-18000000 for A?roports de Paris.

Rhodia (+0.17% to 17.8 euros) announced Thursday night that successfully placed a bond loan of EUR 500 million maturing in 2018 intended to refinance its senior debt.

The U.S. stock markets have recently experienced six consecutive weeks of increases, and a record level since September 2008, continues its momentum. The Dow Jones opened down 0.07% and the Nasdaq 100 0.11%, but the disappointment of Alcoa's results did not last. The eyes are now riveted on the release of Intel's after-hours trade, which will sign a series of results from technology stocks.

On Monday, the Dow Jones gleaned 0.08% to increase the threshold highly symbolic 11 000 points for the first time since September 2008.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro continues to strengthen against the dollar, after surging the day before with the announcement of details of the rescue plan for Greece.In early afternoon, the European currency was worth 1.3614 dollars against 1.3585 dollars in morning.

Oil continued to fall

Side oil, black gold connects its fifth session of declines, traders are concerned about the continuing rise in oil stocks in the United States.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), a barrel of light sweet crude for May delivery finished at 84.05 dollars, down 29 cents from the previous day.The courses, which had exceeded $ 87 last Tuesday in New York for the first time in a year and a half, have lost about three dollars in five sessions.

The U.S. Department of Energy shall broadcast Wednesday's weekly statistics on trends in U.S. oil reserves, and analysts expect the announcement of an eleventh consecutive week of increase in crude inventories.

Palm loses ground after a flight

The week will also be crucial for the U.S. markets with the opening ball of the quarterly results. As usual, the aluminum giant Alcoa (-1.92% to 14.29 dollars) which gave the start of the season publications, Monday after the market closes. The U.S. producer of aluminum remained in the red in the first quarter, however, divided more than double its loss a year.Alcoa recorded a net loss after minority interests of 201 million over the first three months of the year, against a deficit of $ 497 million a year earlier.

Today, the computer chip manufacturer Intel (0.50% to 22.65 dollars) will follow. The next week will be hosted by Google's quarterly results (0.83% to 577.31 dollars), General Electric (0.91% to 18.88 dollars) or JPMorgan Chase & Co (0, 27% to 46.26 dollars).

Always on the side of values, yesterday, the U.S. oil group ConocoPhillips (0.02% to 55.97 U.S. dollars) has announced the sale of its Chinese Sinopec stake in Canadian oil sands project Syncrude for $ 4.65 billion dollars (3.42 billion euros).This is one of the largest investments ever made by China in North America.

The manufacturer of PDAs and mobile phones Palm (-13.08% to 5.25 dollars), would seek a buyer. Bloomberg said the investment bank Goldman Sachs and Qatalyst Partners were commissioned to find a buyer to the manufacturer of smartphones in serious financial trouble. Action Palm and jumped over 17% Monday to the New York Stock Exchange.

The index futures are predicting a slightly lower opening of U.S. markets after already six consecutive sessions in green. Not since August 2009 to find such a series of increases on Wall Street. On the momentum of the day, U.S. markets have ended on a new annual summit Wednesday. The indices have continued to benefit from the status quo monetary decided by the Fed, and the reassurance of the U.S. central bank on the health of the economy.

Shortly before the opening of markets across the Atlantic, the index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 slid 0.11% respectively at 1 164.50 points and 0.05% to 1 935.50 points.

In the United States, the session will be punctuated by the publication of a series of indicators. Investors will first knowledge of the price index for consumption for the month of February.Analysts on average expect a price increase of 0.1% over one month and 2.3% over one year. The day will then continue with the announcement of weekly unemployment registration and publication of the balance of current accounts for the last three months of 2009. Experts expect a deficit just under 120 billion dollars. Follow the index of the Central Bank of Philadelphia for the month of March and the composite index of leading indicators for February.

On the currency markets, the euro back down to $ 1.37 after Germany had banged his fist on the table against Greece and the assumption of an IMF assistance had resurfaced.The barrel of oil is still firm, the new deadline of May of Brent trading at 81.48 dollars on the London market an ounce of gold.

Nike back to growth

On the side of values, the number one sports equipment, Nike announced after the close on Wall Street a return to growth in sales and profits. In the third quarter of its fiscal year ended in late February), Nike has made a net profit of 496 million dollars against 244 million a year earlier on the same period. A few months before the World Cup 2010, its backlog has already greatly improved and the group expects a continuation of this trend.

A follow also the title of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing. China has ordered its airlines to conduct checks of their Boeing 737 after a similar decision of U.S. authorities.The decision of the Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC), which covers 400 aircraft, follows concerns about possible security problems related to a component in the tail of the aircraft.

The results of FedEx for the third quarter are expected on Thursday. The numbers of specialist couriers are always observed under the microscope by investors. Indeed, they generally face forward barometer of U.S. business activity.

Announced in May, the marketing of coffee pods Casino compatible with Nespresso coffee machines, breaking for the first time the monopoly of the subsidiary of Nestl? on its capsules, should lead to jostling on the shelves of super, supermarkets and mini-markets group Etienne. It could also lead to a rush in the courtroom. "We will defend our interests in a very strong," says Le Figaro Richard Girardot, CEO of Nespresso.

Ethical Coffee Company (ECC), the young Swiss company founded by a former boss of Nespresso and Casino, has negotiated exclusive distribution in France capsules designed by ECC, ensure not to violate any of the patents filed by the subsidiary Nestle. Those who protect the first generation of capsules are supposed to fall into the public domain until late 2012 payday advances .ECC claims to have found a loophole allowing him to circumvent the patent protection. "It seems very surprising to our lawyers," stressed the head of Nespresso, which states that the 1700 patent filed by the group to protect the faith the capsules and how they are used in coffee makers.

The leaders of Nespresso, which could not see, and because the capsule competing, let alone taste it, do not count undertake preventive approach, both towards Casino, ECC or its sub Folliet contractor, the roaster Chambery which supports the production of pods. But with their lawyers, they will likely be the first to rush into the shelves of Casino.

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lefigaro.fr: Pay rates are eroding each year. Life insurance will she lose her place of savings product preferred French?

Fran?ois Longin: This term is preferred savings often used but it is not really the case for at least two reasons. The first is financial. The product units accounts sitting on the CAC 40 have suffered from the crisis. As for funds in euro, eroding their earnings. 5%, it rose to 4.5% or 3.8% for some. But with returns that remain between 3% to 4%, life insurance remains more attractive than money market products whose performance flirts with 1%.The second reason is related to the reform of inheritance tax since 2007 has lost a little interest in life insurance.

Life insurance is it still a good product transmission?

The tax rules for the transmission of money invested in life insurance have not changed, but the reform of inheritance taken by the Government to facilitate such donations, has lost its interest in life insurance. Particularly as regards the succession between spouses. However, holders of life insurance can now pay up to 150,000 euros to each of their children, not inheritance. This allows for example a couple with two children to give each of them 300,000 euros for free.Beyond 150,000 euros, the transmission is taxed at 20%.

What issues should I consider before choosing a contract of life insurance?

Before choosing an insurance-life, we must address three key points. The profitability, risk and liquidity funds. Profitability, in other words, the compensation offered by the contract is important. It will depend on the type of support. Either you invest in a fund in euros, based on government bonds and the yield will be between 3.5% and 4.80%. Whether you choose the fund units of account, also called multichannel, whose performance is more important because you take more risks by investing in shares or funds to emerging markets. It's more risky, but the year after, people who have invested in French shares have gained 20%.

It must then linger on the liquidity of funds.The money is not actually blocked, but it is more or less detrimental to withdraw money before age 8.

Finally, we must be vigilant about fees: entry fees, which disappear on the Internet, and management fees that range between 0.6% and 1% under the contracts.

At what age is it interesting to take out life insurance?

The tax treatment of life changes during the life of the insured. Over the insured later withdrew the money invested is more interesting. Insurers therefore recommend to take a contract as soon as practicable, to date, and this even if the person is simply placing a small capital without making further payments in the first place.When young, you can also take more risk and choose unit-linked contracts account for more attractive returns.

Can we rely on contracts offered on internet?

They are good products in the sense that it has internet access to the same fund as the insurance contracts traded in the "real world", with more direct access to place orders. Other service not found with traditional life assurance: all orders have a written record, the process is to me more reliably than through an intermediary. The sites of online brokerage also offers advice and simulations. Opting for a contract on the internet, however, implies that one has some experience of financial investments.

Warren Buffet has spoken. The American billionaire was strongly opposed to the will of Kraft Foods to issue 370 million shares to acquire Cadbury. Holding 9.4% stake in Kraft Foods, he says leading shareholder of U.S. food group. In a statement, holding the "Oracle of Omaha 'believes that this offer is a" blank check "for Kraft, which could, if necessary, modify its bid, thus harming shareholders. "What we are sure is that the current price of Kraft shares to $ 27 is a" money "too expensive for an acquisition," said the statement.

Kraft has announced its final bid for Cadbury by 19 January. "If we conclude that the offer does not destroy value for Kraft shareholders, we will vote" yes ".For now, we believe that no shareholder should do (vote "yes"), so it is not clear why he voted "he concludes.

At the opening on Wall Street Tuesday, Kraft Foods was up 2.99% to 28.25 euros. The Dow Jones lost 0.31% to 10,551.61 points.

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Nothing very serious, but a real nervousness gripped the market on weekends. French values are clearly divided down for the fourth straight session and Wall Street began a real consolidation.

The publication of poor results by the computer manufacturer Dell, whose profits have halved in a year, has certainly cast a pall. Therefore, the decline was widespread in technology stocks in the whole document: Among the largest declines over the weekend, tech stocks, but also banks, real estate and many cyclical industries.

In fact, beyond these poor results, the market consolidates because investors are worried about the strength of the recovery, the deteriorating public finances and relapse indicators on housing states USA.Therefore, in the absence of fresh news can revive the dynamic market, investors have preferred to take profits. To top it off, President Obama held a relapse of the activity was not excluded if the recovery efforts were abandoned and the Japanese authorities have recognized that the country has fallen into recession, with falling prices for the seventh consecutive month.

After two years of crisis that we have known, investors have seen others, but should not the signs of depression are increasing, with an avalanche of bad economic data and disappointing results.The virtuous circle that has established a stock exchange, with expectations of gradual recovery in activity and improvement in profits needs to be supported, if the correction could increase.

For now, the indexes are still near the highest: more than 10,000 points for the Dow Jones, over 3,700 for the CAC 40. We must beware of making catastrophism, the scenario out of recession is good for equities, the key is to remember that the current consolidation is beneficial because it restores margin for operations to start rising.

While waiting to see clearer, gold opportunity to play its full role investment haven to more than $ 1,100 an ounce in London.

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