International Headlines and Stories

Roman Lucazeau, Chargé de Mission in the Business Institute, details the mechanisms at work in the test programs.

THE FIGARO.FR. – Why submit programs of candidates for this test?

Roman Lucazeau. – Although, compared to the 2007 presidential campaign, the programs of the two main candidates are more accurate, they still gray areas and are based on slightly different economic scenarios. This makes comparison difficult. So we tried to apply the same economic variables: growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, by 2017. We also wanted to discover what happened to the public finances if the programs were implemented with, notably, lower growth than that provided by the candidates, for example, that France has known, on average, over the past decade.  

Originally, this type of exercise is applied by the financial authorities to banks. These are subject to economic scenarios degraded to assess their strength in case of economic crisis. We use a similar method to test the ability of candidates to achieve their stated goal (zero deficit in 2016 for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2017 for Francis Holland).

But in a crisis, a candidate can always abandon its initial program

.

Absolutely. We test the strength of their roadmap, as defined during the election campaign, in a worse position than they anticipate cheap business cards. We evaluate today's promises and do not prejudge the future president of the reactions in case of contingencies.  

How does this model?

We leave the bases nominee programs (eg growth rate, the level of taxes and public spending …) and against which they built their proposals. These assumptions are public and have been developed by their campaign teams. We determine how the deficit and debt change if we change some parameters on the basis of data and public reporting, the INSEE, the Court of Auditors and of Bercy. The details of our methodology is available on our website.

How do you ensure objectivity of your approach?

We submitted the candidates' platforms to the same constraints: same inflation, even growth, even drift government spending or health insurance, etc.. The differences between results are explained by the differences between the programs themselves. Debt strategy of the two candidates based on both on growth, tax increases and budget savings. But Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande do not intend to use these levers to the same extent. Their programs do not react the same way a change of parameters.

Purpose wants to be known among city dwellers. The chain will open its first home furnishings store in the capital during the week of May 7, on the prestigious Avenue Wagram (XVII), next to Roche Bobois. This is the second City goal, brand created two years ago to lead the offense group in major cities. The first of its kind since late 2010 is installed in the mall Domus Rosny-sous-Bois (Seine-Saint-Denis). A third is scheduled to open in late June in the mall Cap 3000 in Nice.

Covering an area of ​​between 1000 m2 and 1500 m2, the City Purpose are two to five times smaller than the stores Aim at the periphery of towns. The entire range of Purpose can not be presented. As Conforama, with its sign of downtown Confo Deco Goal has chosen to focus on the organization of living, bedrooms and kitchen. "Our products, all contemporary, are adapted to small spaces. They will be at very affordable prices, as the Parisians today lack a tender other than the high end, "said Berengaria Lamboley, marketing director of Purpose.

If the appliance will not be exposed in the shop of Wagram, customers will still buy coffee machines, refrigerators and vacuum cleaners via touch screens. Or through tablets which vendors will be equipped. Purpose The City of Wagram offer innovative services, such as animations to lunch fast payday loans. "We also deliver free in the evening between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m., in central Paris and the Hauts-de-Seine," says Regis Schultz, CEO of the group.

A third sign referred

Offensive Purpose does not stop there. Regis Schultz prepares to unveil, in July, a third store format, with a dedicated teaching. Located in the "middle rurban" (catchment areas from 30,000 to 40,000), these stores will be "Aim small, with a comprehensive range of approximately 1500 m2, and are for those who do not want to buy a 40 km washing machine, "explains Bérangère Lamboley. Eight stores of this type are planned this year. These openings will bring to 219 the total number of stores owned by the brand of furniture.

Goal is now the third French player, with a market share of 10.3% in 2011, still far behind Ikea (17.8%) and Conforama (14.5%). For sale by its owner Goldman Sachs, Colony Capital and OpCapita (former Merchant Equity Partners), the group like five French investment funds. Shareholders give hope to the sign for 450, or 500 million euros, valuing the company at about six times its Ebitda (80 million euros in 2011).

ALSO READ:

"Goal could change hands

"Retailers are catching up in e-commerce

Seen from France, in its presidential campaign when it comes to rescue of ailing industrial sites, the remarks by Sergio Marchionne, the boss of Fiat-Chrysler, on the European car should react. For him, there is no alternative but to radically reshape the European car factories.

"The industry faces overcapacity of about 20%, especially on small cars, pulling prices down: this is why almost nobody makes money in Europe. This inability to sell all the products we sell, that's exactly the problem faced by the United States in 2007-2008. But there, American manufacturers have closed 20% of their capacity and, now, they win money, "says Le Figaro who is this year president of the Association of European manufacturers (ACEA).

The same evils, the same remedies. The boss of Fiat-Chrysler considers it necessary to remove the 20% in Europe of excess production capacity, more than 3 million cars, which could, according to experts, lead by a dozen plant closings. "We have no choice, launching this adjustment process and then start again from scratch on a sound basis. It will be painful for twelve months, but let's do it! "

The picture that Sergio Marchionne to the situation of the European car is "horrible". He expects this year the market fell for the fifth consecutive year, "5%". And sees no recovery before 2014, and again, at a speed not "crazy." "Meanwhile, we must build on this interval to restructure and get the full benefits of the restructuring when the market recovers."

"It would be the best thing that could happen" because the area in 2008 missed a "huge opportunity" to "streamline" its operations.

According to him, "it is for Europe to support this transition, because, individually, the governments of various countries will not do." Sergio Marchionne noted that in France the state has helped manufacturers provided they do not close plants, while the "U.S. has rather pushed to restructure two groups during their bankruptcy." We must now a "coordinated effort" at European level so that "the pain is shared" so "rational".

With redundancies

"If Europe stops this restructuring, the manufacturers will not invest enough to modernize their production and move upmarket," he says.

Europe could also establish a "financial support mechanism" to cope with redundancies. Anyway, it will take a "social welfare system provides the transition," so as to give the "care and attention" to the employees concerned. Leaves, he hopes, that the industry gets back to hire when it will be healthier.

ALSO READ:

"The car appeals to Europe to restructure

"Fiat hardens the working conditions of its Italian employees

Premiere in prime time. Sunday night on TF1, between the news of Claire Chazal and the film Asterix, the display advertising will be fully reserved for a movie three and a half minutes, signed Cartier. There is no question of a campaign for a classic perfume, a ring or a watch. The short film, called The Odyssey and devoid of any slogan, many references to the history of Cartier and its flagship products. Starting from the Grand Palais in Paris, a panther toured the world, gliding sleigh on the frozen Neva at the foot of the Hermitage Museum, St. Petersburg, from the Chinese wall in the palace of a Maharajah India, jumping on the "14 bis" of the aviator Alberto Santos-Dumont, before returning to the Place Vendome. Two years of work were needed for this film, a budget of 4 million euros.

"No question of resting on its laurels"

Flagship of the South African group Richemont, the world number two luxury (Van Cleef, Piaget, Montblanc, Lancel, Dunhill …), Cartier the jeweler is certainly already the world's most popular and favorite luxury brand of the Chinese. But no question of resting on its laurels. "We always want to go further, do better, we stand out from other luxury brands and the desirability of maintaining the highest Cartier for eternity," says Bernard Fornas, CEO of the company, to justify the first institutional campaign this magnitude in the luxury sector. This will be deployed in 29 countries around the world.

"With this film, we wanted to strongly reaffirm the myth Cartier, make a mural that film foregrounds its history, its values ​​of creativity, elegance and refinement, his inspirations, his artistic dimension and universal, continues the boss payday loans in one hour. We want to show that this house is the opposite of fashion, fleeting. We are located on the side of the timeless. When they create, develop and manufacture, our teams are not even thinking. Our products are designed for life, not for a few seasons. "

History of jewelery

The Odyssey is an allegory of the history of Cartier. The muse of the film is a panther, icon of the jeweler since 1904, rather than a woman. The house designs are present on some shots, "but only in a subliminal way, says Bernard Fornas. The Odyssey is a way to reassert the French genius of Cartier style. We were the first to the Art Deco style we invented the Tutti Frutti and garlands. With 1300 pieces of Cartier private collection, one can tell the story of jewelery. "No question, of course, that this campaign replaces ads for classic perfumes, and jewelry Cartier rings. "This is an umbrella campaign on the brand, designed to create dreams," says Bernard Fornas. Cartier still spend 5 to 10% of its budget worldwide media buying with different versions of this film. The film will be released in the cinema, a 45-second version will follow on TV, and the Publicis agency will organize relay on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. One way to Cartier, instantly find global relay and multiply the effectiveness of traditional media campaign.

"We set the bar high for other luxury homes that would highlight their" legend ", if indeed they have one in," says Bernard Fornas.

ALSO READ:

"Societies: The owner of Cartier saved by Asia

An agreement, signed last week between management and the Air France pilots' union (SNPL), reduces the scope of guaranteed service in the air, reveals Liberation. Transposition of the 2008 Act applicable to the SNCF, the text of UMP Eric Diard plans to compel the workers of the company to declare 48 hours in advance. The aim is both to predict future perturbations and thus inform passengers, and to minimize its effects through the reallocation of non-striking staff.

This second objective is compromised in part the agreement signed last week with the drivers. It provides that "the planning of the flight crew is stable [...] in all circumstances and at all times, without exception." Clearly, Air France can not as she wishes to reallocate its staff not on strike or on holiday to improve traffic. The reallocation of staff are still possible, but each driver will have to agree "on a case by case."

"Defusing a dispute with the pilots'

"This means that in case of strike, there will be fewer pilots recalled and more canceled flights. It is surprising that Air France has agreed, "says a government source in Liberation. This is particularly surprising that the strike sector personnel, which began in early February against it, had ended in failure, no recoil on the guaranteed service that has been obtained.

The management of Air France, meanwhile, denies having given wrongly. "This new agreement ratifies simply clarification of an agreement dating from 2006. It is unrelated to the upcoming vote in the guaranteed service, "justified a spokesman. The management also stresses that the redeployment of staff have always done on a voluntary basis. "It does not require a pilot to fly against his will, it would create a security risk," said a spokesman for Libération. Referring to an agreement "win-win", he concedes that it is also to "defuse a dispute with pilot population."

ALSO READ:

"Minimum Air Service: texted voted

SERVICE:

"All jobs in France and abroad with Cadremploi

FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS ON FIGARO:

"Twitter: @ LeFigaro_Emploi

In purchasing real estate, the French would have become more opportunistic. This is reflected in a survey of the Land Bank published this Saturday in Le Parisien-Aujourd'hui en France, on Saturday. The study found that nearly two-thirds of the French advance will realize a capital gain tax at the time to buy an apartment. Thirty years ago, they were a little less than half. "In 2010, 22% of buyers formulate their intention to sell as soon as possible, against 4.2% in 1980," said the newspaper Deletré Bruno, general manager of Crédit Foncier. The desire to stop paying rent and security always have a home are the main motivations for first-time buyers that are what the generations (over 90% of respondents).The survey was conducted among four generations of first-time buyers (1620 people in total) signed a loan with Land Bank.

"Buyers more opportunistic and strategic"

To the general manager of Crédit Foncier, today's generation is more "strategic" than their elders who could probably more easily buy a long-term bad credit pay day loans. "We are faced with more opportunistic buyers, which are placed on a financial and strategic option," he said. Today's buyers who have experienced a doubling of prices in ten years are more responsive to market conditions according to this survey (75% against 66% for buyers of the 2000s) but not more concerned than previous generations to build a retirement investment (on average, between 71% and 72% by generation).

In this context of rising prices, buyers today feel more proud to own (67% against 54% for generation 2000). Generation in 2000, helped by a favorable economic environment, expressed "most satisfied", the buyers of the 1990s say they are "reasonable" and those of the 1980s put forward the "sacrifices" made to repay the loan.

After a first crisis meeting on Monday, the board of directors of Dexia held another meeting on Sunday night marathon on a background of tensions. On the menu, the agreement in principle found in government, between France, Belgium and Luxembourg, on a pattern of orderly liquidation of troubled bank.

The dismantling of Dexia revolve around two main axes. First part of the device, sales lead to much gnashing of teeth. Side France, the discussion focuses on the sale of a portfolio of over EUR 70 billion – mostly loans to local authorities – an entity owned 65% by Caisse des Depots, which drags its feet. Until more details, the Investment Committee of the CDC has just issued an advisory opinion but negative according to our sources.La Banque Postale will take a minimum the job of funder community, hitherto devoted to its competitor.

At the same time, Dexia will sell its retail banking subsidiary in Belgium, Dexia Bank Belgium, the Belgian partner probably common across the Quiévrain. The Wall Street Journal, Price, hotly debated, could turn around 4 billion euros, well below the value expected by shareholders. As Fortis sold to BNP Paribas in 2008, the Belgian government's goal is to lean then the network to a private actor. For its part, Luxembourg completes its participation in the recovery of BIL through a consortium led by Qatari investors. Denizbank, the Turkish subsidiary, is also about to be sold.

The second component of dismantling the management of residual interests.While the Spanish or Italian Sabadell Crediop seem almost impossible to sell, will remain at Dexia a portfolio of nearly 95 billion euros in loans, of which 12 billion of government bonds devices in Europe. It is this "bad bank" guarantee promised by France and Belgium will apply. Sunday, the two countries should share the burden away. In 2008, Belgium had made to their account 60% of the security so much higher than 150 billion euros. This time, the camp Yves Leterme wanted to reduce its share of the bill, arguing that the French management had little Belgian interests associated with the management since 2008.

Impact rating

Signal of the high stakes, Prime Minister François Fillon had made the trip to Brussels on Sunday to meet with Belgian prime minister Yves Leterme.The talks, which have been associated with Jean-Luc Dehaene and Pierre Mariani, President and Group CEO, helped lead to a solution "fruit of intensive consultations with all partners involved," insisted the two sides.

The two countries share a triple objective: secure banking on their own territory, without violating the rights of minority shareholders, and while limiting the cost of this debacle for public finances. Friday, Moody's had also placed the rating on negative watch Belgium. Council of Ministers to be held in Belgium on Sunday night, after the Board of Directors of the bank.

ALSO READ:

"The Belgian branch of Dexia could be nationalized

"Dexia swells debate on the consequences of support

After closing up Thursday evening, the U.S. stock markets have struggled to stay in the green Friday. At the close, the Dow gained 0.66% to 11,509,09 points, the Nasdaq is 0.58% to 2622.31 points and the S & P 500 climbed 0.57% to 1216.01 points. The benchmark index of Wall Street has finished in the green of the five sessions of the week, a performance he had not done since the last week of June. It displays a weekly increase of 4.7%.

Investors focused on news from Europe. After the announcement, positively received, a new agreement between central banks to provide dollar liquidity to European banks and Japanese eyes were riveted to Poland which is a meeting of EU finance ministers.The latter have formally agreed on the principle of strengthening fiscal discipline by imposing financial penalties on countries too lax, paving the way for formal adoption of this reform.

In contrast, the euro area and again stumbles on the guarantees requested by Finland in exchange for new loans in Athens, an issue that poisons relations within the euro area.Concerning the payment of a further tranche of loans that the country urgently needs, the euro area has decided to postpone any decision until October.

Invited exceptionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has also expressed concern about the divisions between governments and the European Central Bank (ECB).

U.S. consumer confidence rises

In this context, the "four witches" today is to say the expiration of four types of futures contracts on indices and stocks, have increased volatility.

Good news, however, helped keep the exchanges in positive territory: U.S. consumer confidence rises, according to the index of consumer confidence in September, published by the University of Michigan.The index, which fell in August to its lowest level since November 2008, increased 2.1 points to 57.8, according to a still provisional estimate for September. Analysts were waiting a little lower, at 56.3.

Oil has closed lower Friday in New York, suffering from profit taking less reassured investors that the day before on the likelihood of a quick resolution of the debt crisis in Europe.A barrel of "light sweet crude" for October delivery ended down $ 1.44 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to 87.96 dollars a barrel.

RIM collapses

On the corporate side, Research in Motion (- 18.99% to 23.93 dollars), the maker of BlackBerry smartphones, collapsed after publishing quarterly results fell sharply, well below analysts' forecasts.

The rating agency Moody's said Thursday it placed under surveillance notes of the bank UBS (+ 4.16% to 11.89 dollars) with for a potential degradation due to "weaknesses in the management of risk group. "

At the heart of the news, Google (+ 0.76% to 546.68 dollars) has purchased additional patents in 1023 the computer company IBM (1.55% to 172.72 dollars) to strengthen its portfolio and attempt to discourage trial for violation of intellectual property.Google expects the other hand that the number of Internet users in India to be tripled in three years through improved access to wireless internet and at prices more affordable smartphone, reported on Friday Wall Street Journal.

Boeing (1.49% to 65.28 dollars) could finally respond to the order by Air France-KLM of 110 long-haul aircraft, including 50 firm orders, builders Boeing and European Airbus to ensure the renewal of its fleet.

After the storm that plunged all the stock exchanges, the European shares rebound on Thursday. In Paris the CAC 40 index opened up 2.96% to 3092.16 points. Same trend in Frankfurt the Dax rose 2.81% to 5771.21 points and in London the FTSE 100 opened up over 2% to 5118.29 points. Appeasement was already felt in the Asian stock markets that are returned to the green or showed moderate declines.

Wednesday, the markets were shaken by rumors of a deterioration in the rating of France, immediately denied by the rating agencies and the French government, and concerns about the health of the bank Societe Generale. And the CAC 40 plunged 5.45%, narrowly escaping the psychological threshold of 3000 points to 3002.99 points. Other European markets have suffered the same drop Frankfurt dropped 5.13%, 3.05% London.Madrid and Milan 5.49% 6.65%. In New York, the Dow fell 4.62% and 4.09% for the Nasdaq.

Bank stocks monitored

Gold continues, meanwhile, fly from record to record. The precious metal has crossed the threshold of 1800 dollars. It is this Thursday morning in 1790 dollars, after hitting a new record of 1815.50 dollars. However, oil resumed its decline in Asia. Yet he had resisted the panic the day before with the announcement of a dramatic and unexpected decline in crude inventories in the United States. In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" lost 79 cents to 82.10 dollars and that of Brent North Sea fell by 1.10 dollars to 105.58 dollars.

Among the values ​​to be followed, the bank that have been heavily tested yesterday. The Financial Markets Authority (AMF), the stock market regulator, announced that it will monitor developments in the securities sector.Trading in Societe Generale jumped nearly 9% to 24.16 euros after being suspended briefly at the opening. The title was unscrewed from 14.74% on Wednesday. The bank asked the AMF to investigate the origin of the rumors that have depressed its course Same day payday loans. The CEO of the bank, Frédéric Oudéa, denounced, in an interview with Le Figaro, "the series of attacks" against the French banking sector "sounds completely fantastic, I struggle with the utmost force, it is taken at Societe Generale, "he lamented. "We have no fear on our lending: we achieved 93% of our long-term funding program year, he added.Short-term side, we have 105 billion euros of underlying assets with central banks and keep full access to the interbank market. "

BNP Paribas (2.98% to 36.67 euros) and Credit Agricole (5.68% to 6.418 euros) rebounded Wednesday after falling by 9.5% and 11.8%.

In addition, EADS (1.66% to 20.24 euros), the parent company of Airbus, said Wednesday it will not achieve its objectives in the United States in 2020 without new acquisitions.

Title Alcatel-Lucent (2.11% to 2.324 euros) is expected to rise following the release of quarterly results from Cisco Systems, above the consensus of Wall Street.

L'Oreal (2.29% to 1.73 euros) should benefit from the decision by Goldman Sachs, which added its list of preferred European stocks to buy ("pan-Europe conviction buy list").

Saint-Gobain (1.11% to 31.775 euros) has announced the acquisition of Solar Gard, a subsidiary of Belgian group dedicated to Bekaert Specialty Films, as part of its strategy to accelerate its growth through acquisitions.

Maurel & Prom rose 4.22% to 12.35 euros after opening up over 8%. The oil company reported a surge of 123% of its revenue thanks to increased revenues in Gabon and Nigeria.

ALSO READ:

"Falling stock market: the CEO of Societe Generale reacts

"French banks in the spiral of fear

"Paris Bourse: 70 billion evaporated in five sessions

The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and Shanghai respectively climbed 1.42% to 22,068.70 points and 1.84% to 3012.17 points in morning trading on Friday and take the coast on the main stock indexes in Asia Pacific. In Tokyo, the Nikkei is 0.47% at 9641.68 points, in India the BSE wins 1.33% to 17,964.10 points, Singapore, the Straits Times rises from 0.32% to 3054.54 points and Australia, the S & P / ASX earns 0.33% to 4515.20 points.

So yesterday, a barrel of oil fell in New York and London due to the intervention of the International Energy Agency – which drew on its stocks to meet a "shortage", companies the airline industry substantially benefit the stock market. Air China climbed 6.81%, 1.87% of Singapore Airlines and Qantas of 2.33%. Values ​​rise as exporters like Toyota (1.08%) or Toshiba (4.10%). In South Korea, Samsung and LG allows itself 1.2% 0.9%.On Friday, oil prices increased again: the barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in August went back to almost 92 dollars (91.94 dollars to be precise). That of Brent North Sea crude for August delivery took 64 cents to 107.90 dollars. Note also that in Australia, the giant telecom Tesltra which drops by 2.7% against a backdrop of advertisements loss widened.

This Friday is also the first trading day of the Italian Prada. The luxury group took 0.25% for its early trade Friday, becoming the latest group to date to be chosen this place in the heart of Asia to raise capital.The action open to 39.60 Hong Kong dollars (3.56 euros), while the Hong Kong Stock Exchange opened with a gain of 0.39%.

In addition to these movements, the mood settles while the Greek case relaxes: Europe Thursday promised a new plan to save Greece from bankruptcy and avoid contagion to the entire euro area or the rest of world, but kept up the pressure to Athens in exchange for adopting an unpopular austerity program.Greece, it has reached an agreement with international donors on the final details of a new austerity plan, whose adoption in parliament expected next week will determine a second aid plan to avoid bankruptcy the country.

The earthquake in Japan will cost 145 billion euros

The earthquake and tsunami of March 11 in Japan have caused direct damage estimated at 16,900 billion yen (147 billion euros), said Friday the Japanese government. This sum corresponds to the destruction suffered by the infrastructure, homes and businesses of northeastern Japan, devastated by an earthquake of magnitude 9 and a giant tsunami that killed more than 23,000 dead or missing.

The government had previously estimated the damage in a range between 16,000 and 25,000 billion yen (139 to 217,000,000,000 euros).