Roman Lucazeau, Chargé de Mission in the Business Institute, details the mechanisms at work in the test programs.

THE FIGARO.FR. – Why submit programs of candidates for this test?

Roman Lucazeau. – Although, compared to the 2007 presidential campaign, the programs of the two main candidates are more accurate, they still gray areas and are based on slightly different economic scenarios. This makes comparison difficult. So we tried to apply the same economic variables: growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, by 2017. We also wanted to discover what happened to the public finances if the programs were implemented with, notably, lower growth than that provided by the candidates, for example, that France has known, on average, over the past decade.  

Originally, this type of exercise is applied by the financial authorities to banks. These are subject to economic scenarios degraded to assess their strength in case of economic crisis. We use a similar method to test the ability of candidates to achieve their stated goal (zero deficit in 2016 for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2017 for Francis Holland).

But in a crisis, a candidate can always abandon its initial program

.

Absolutely. We test the strength of their roadmap, as defined during the election campaign, in a worse position than they anticipate cheap business cards. We evaluate today's promises and do not prejudge the future president of the reactions in case of contingencies.  

How does this model?

We leave the bases nominee programs (eg growth rate, the level of taxes and public spending …) and against which they built their proposals. These assumptions are public and have been developed by their campaign teams. We determine how the deficit and debt change if we change some parameters on the basis of data and public reporting, the INSEE, the Court of Auditors and of Bercy. The details of our methodology is available on our website.

How do you ensure objectivity of your approach?

We submitted the candidates' platforms to the same constraints: same inflation, even growth, even drift government spending or health insurance, etc.. The differences between results are explained by the differences between the programs themselves. Debt strategy of the two candidates based on both on growth, tax increases and budget savings. But Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande do not intend to use these levers to the same extent. Their programs do not react the same way a change of parameters.

Medel, its official name Lucmagn, is a quiet village of 435 souls nestled at 1332 meters altitude, in the heart of the Alps, in the region of the Lukmanierpass (Grisons). Its inhabitants were just as quiet on their heights until a Swiss mining company, a subsidiary of Canadian Gold NV, may disturb their idyll. Under their feet, in fact hides a gold mine. That company then proposed to exploit this in exchange for 40 million Swiss francs, or about 33 million euros. Against all odds, the villagers declined the offer to two-thirds of the population, after a referendum held in early April.

According to Business Insider, the mine in question, located in a vast pine forest in the snowy peaks and valley Medel, to contain about 1.2 billion dollars of precious metals. The U.S. site information reports that the history of the mine clearly divided the inhabitants of the valley. Some would see a tremendous opportunity in the economic deficient, while others – mostly – highlight their concerns about the environmental impact such a project would succeed.

For its part, NV Gold in talks with the mayor of the small town, more than ever determined to steal the treasure buried by the villagers jealously refractory.

Public hospitals are not so bad, that is the situation of their banks might damage. That, in broad strokes, the picture painted in its annual rating … by Dexia Credit Local, former first sector bank being dismantled.

The deficit in French hospitals reached 220 million euros in 2010. That sounds a lot but the amount represents only 0.3% of their budgets. Excluding appendices generally accounts surplus – long stay, retirement homes, nursing schools, real estate … – care, "heart-to" hospitals, loses 470 million (0.8% of budget). A stable amount of improvement after two years. 2011 should be in the same waters: a somewhat wider scope, including both private non-profit institutions, the government announced an initial estimate of 504 million deficit, against 508 million in 2010.

These figures make it unlikely that the return to balance this year, wanted by Nicolas Sarkozy. However, they reflect "the efforts by hospitals to control their staff costs," says Claire Bouinot, Dexia Credit Local. Because their revenues have increased by only 2% in 2010, the lowest increase for over ten years. Moreover, 300 hospitals "only" are in deficit (-600 million euros), others are in balance or in surplus (380 million).

The year 2010 also marks a break: after a decade of growth, investment by hospitals fell almost 5%, to $ 6.5 billion. They are expected to decline again in 2011 and slightly more strongly in 2012 payday loan. The 2007 Hospital Plan which, in "looping" financial arrangements with state subsidies, led to the partial solution to the obsolescence of French institutions, has expired. It "does not appear in the same volumes relayed by the Hospital Plan 2012", Claire Bouinot analysis.

But above all, co-financing of investments by banks, which was almost closed eyes until 2008, has become extremely difficult. Not that the banks fear increased risk: 24.1 billion, the debt reached "6.2 years of cash flow, a normal level," says Andrew Baker, director of studies of Dexia Credit Local.

But Dexia, precisely, which gave almost half of the loans to hospitals, this activity has slowed since 2008 and early 2012 has completely frozen, waiting to know his fate. And "among our competitors in the public sector, foreign banks have disappeared, savings bank, Credit Mutuel, Crédit Agricole and Societe Generale reduce the wing," says Andre Boulanger. Standards requiring them to strengthen their balance sheets and low earnings generated by public clients explain this decline.

Nothing serious immediate for most hospitals, which merely postpone investments. But much more worrying a small minority of them, including fifty hospitals "in a particularly difficult situation, where the operation consumes cash instead of generating," pointed to by Claire Bouinot.

]]> http://naturalandbest.com/hospitals-drop-their-investment/feed/ 0 http://naturalandbest.com/virgin-farm-one-to-one-of-its-retail-stores/ http://naturalandbest.com/virgin-farm-one-to-one-of-its-retail-stores/#comments Thu, 29 Mar 2012 12:16:04 +0000 admin http://naturalandbest.com/virgin-farm-one-to-one-of-its-retail-stores/  

The distributor sells one to one of its retail stores (3 000 to 5 000 m2), all located in the shopping streets of major cities. "In most cases, assignment of lease rights or collection of an indemnity or compensation allows both reduce costs and generate an exceptional income," says one expert. However, competitors and suppliers are worried about a possible exit from the market in the wake of closures of outlets the most visible, vital to the store's reputation. Especially since Virgin sells very little through its website: only "a few percent of sales" line, according to management, against 11% for FNAC.

The Bordeaux Merignac store closed early 2011, the Carrousel du Louvre in late January, one in Saint-Denis in the beginning. The Virgin of Metz should lower the curtain end of June and the date of closing of that of Toulouse was not communicated to employees. The brand sold at Fnac location of 3000 m2 that it had reserved in the future shopping center Beaugrenelle. Last year, his competitor had already convinced Lagardère Services to undertake the small stores in stations and airports, since renamed Fnac. The future of the flagship Champs-Elysees is uncertain. Virgin charge of real estate firms to find a buyer for his lease.

A new store model

Despite this dramatic reduction in wing, Jean-Louis Raynard, CEO of Virgin Stores, assures to look for ways "to restart the sales payday loan lenders." In 2011, sales were "slightly" decreased to about 300 million euros, while the goal of returning to profitability, fixed by its shareholder, the fund Butler Capital, has not been reached. The sign is positioned on "high-growth segments, such as helmets, but their contribution is still insufficient," admitted the manager, who also spoke of "a new store model, smaller, more segmented with an offer and a greater role for digital. " Virgin had to test its new store format before summer. Since the date of presentation of this "new strategy" has been postponed twice. It is now scheduled for early May "an establishment in the first site at the end of the year." In the meantime, Virgin will open at the mall from the Gare Saint-Lazare, probably in the coming days. It will not surprise the customer by its small size (965 m2), because the offer has not been reviewed

.

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Seen from France, in its presidential campaign when it comes to rescue of ailing industrial sites, the remarks by Sergio Marchionne, the boss of Fiat-Chrysler, on the European car should react. For him, there is no alternative but to radically reshape the European car factories.

"The industry faces overcapacity of about 20%, especially on small cars, pulling prices down: this is why almost nobody makes money in Europe. This inability to sell all the products we sell, that's exactly the problem faced by the United States in 2007-2008. But there, American manufacturers have closed 20% of their capacity and, now, they win money, "says Le Figaro who is this year president of the Association of European manufacturers (ACEA).

The same evils, the same remedies. The boss of Fiat-Chrysler considers it necessary to remove the 20% in Europe of excess production capacity, more than 3 million cars, which could, according to experts, lead by a dozen plant closings. "We have no choice, launching this adjustment process and then start again from scratch on a sound basis. It will be painful for twelve months, but let's do it! "

The picture that Sergio Marchionne to the situation of the European car is "horrible". He expects this year the market fell for the fifth consecutive year, "5%". And sees no recovery before 2014, and again, at a speed not "crazy." "Meanwhile, we must build on this interval to restructure and get the full benefits of the restructuring when the market recovers."

"It would be the best thing that could happen" because the area in 2008 missed a "huge opportunity" to "streamline" its operations.

According to him, "it is for Europe to support this transition, because, individually, the governments of various countries will not do." Sergio Marchionne noted that in France the state has helped manufacturers provided they do not close plants, while the "U.S. has rather pushed to restructure two groups during their bankruptcy." We must now a "coordinated effort" at European level so that "the pain is shared" so "rational".

With redundancies

"If Europe stops this restructuring, the manufacturers will not invest enough to modernize their production and move upmarket," he says.

Europe could also establish a "financial support mechanism" to cope with redundancies. Anyway, it will take a "social welfare system provides the transition," so as to give the "care and attention" to the employees concerned. Leaves, he hopes, that the industry gets back to hire when it will be healthier.

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A month after the controversy created by the opening of its giant plant in Tangiers, and while made in France remains a central issue in the election campaign, stoutly defends his Renault acceleration in the low-cost. Cultivating paradox, the group believes that its low-cost models to help protect jobs in the Hexagon. And even if the MPV Lodgy Dacia, built on the site of Morocco, is proposed for Wednesday from 9900 euros, more than twice unless the Renault Scenic assembled at Douai, in the North.

On a European market down, "there is considerable logic to make the models where we can make them competitive," said Carlos Tavares, the deputy CEO of Renault. "While our competitors are forced, in a desperate step, practice excessive discounts, may destroy value, we invented a way to make money more effectively," he says. The low-cost range "the most profitable business" liberates margins well above 6%.

a French champion of global size

With these profits, which are "reinvested", "Renault is protected, we avoid tough decisions, our competitors are forced to take. This helps prevent people make social plans, "says Renault boss operational, which notes that" those who claim to have higher production in France more important than ours, are also those in losses. " More generally, "France would gain by having a world champion-size automobile. When the company expands overseas, it's good for the group in France, "said Carlos Tavares.

Renault has made last year 23% of its vehicles in France (against 44% for PSA). In the long term, its production declined sharply in the Hexagon: 445,000 cars and 201,000 commercial vehicles in 2011, against 1.1 million cars and 227,000 commercial in 2004.

The Lion, the automotive division was not profitable last year (- 0.2% operating margin, against 0.8% for Renault), will remove 6,000 positions this year in Europe, including 3,500 in-house .

Handicap image

The diamond company, which devotes 40% of its investments in France, it now locates priority models with high added value: commercial vehicles, electric cars and high end. The next high-end cars, planned from 2014, however, must win while French "has a disability image" in the face of German manufacturers, recognizes Carlos Tavares. For the hour, equivalent models, the Renault cars are bought "on average 10% cheaper" than those of the Volkswagen brand.

On the electric as the band Zoe will launch its fall, the boss does not hide his disappointment at the slowness of government. "The charging infrastructure are late. France has a huge opportunity to play, we have everything it takes to become a world leader in power. I am a little concerned that we can possibly pass up this opportunity, "he says.

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In the sports world, too, women were honored today. Gathered in Barcelona for the Global Sports Forum around a round table on women and sport, many iconic figures in women's sport (Conchita Martinez, Natalia Via Dufresne, Maria Vasco …) are back on the steps, the determinants and difficulties in their careers.

Difficulties that often go for female athletes on the side of the portfolio. As in a traditional business, where wage differences between men and women reach 20% in favor of men, women athletes are often less rewarded for equal performance. Less publicized, women's sports breaststroke often much less money than her male counterpart. For example, the Blue French football earn on average between 1500 and 2000 euros per month, against 42,000 euros for a player in Ligue 1, which thus is not necessarily at the international level. Therefore, the ability of an athlete to match the income of her male counterparts to take over its ability to sell its image among brands, to improve athletic performance.

Brands begin gently female sponsorship

However, "few sponsors invest in women" analysis Yannick Puaux, founder manager of Hamaé Council payday advance. "Their resources are not sufficient to consider it not to work after their sporting career. In the end, nothing very different to male / female ratio in ordinary society where, to access the same professional status, at the same level of professional remuneration or benefit from the same quarry, we must do more than men. "

As for event organizers, attitudes are changing, however slowly. In recent years, the tournament at Roland Garros and Wimbledon distribute the same earnings for men and women, or about 1.2 million euros for the tournament winners of the Porte d'Auteuil, and those in the capital in London. Faced with these ad hoc efforts, inequality remains a persistent problem that continues once hung up the cleats. "The conversion of women is also more difficult, says Yannick Puaux. They must keep a job more often in parallel and be concerned for their retirement earlier. "

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An agreement, signed last week between management and the Air France pilots' union (SNPL), reduces the scope of guaranteed service in the air, reveals Liberation. Transposition of the 2008 Act applicable to the SNCF, the text of UMP Eric Diard plans to compel the workers of the company to declare 48 hours in advance. The aim is both to predict future perturbations and thus inform passengers, and to minimize its effects through the reallocation of non-striking staff.

This second objective is compromised in part the agreement signed last week with the drivers. It provides that "the planning of the flight crew is stable [...] in all circumstances and at all times, without exception." Clearly, Air France can not as she wishes to reallocate its staff not on strike or on holiday to improve traffic. The reallocation of staff are still possible, but each driver will have to agree "on a case by case."

"Defusing a dispute with the pilots'

"This means that in case of strike, there will be fewer pilots recalled and more canceled flights. It is surprising that Air France has agreed, "says a government source in Liberation. This is particularly surprising that the strike sector personnel, which began in early February against it, had ended in failure, no recoil on the guaranteed service that has been obtained.

The management of Air France, meanwhile, denies having given wrongly. "This new agreement ratifies simply clarification of an agreement dating from 2006. It is unrelated to the upcoming vote in the guaranteed service, "justified a spokesman. The management also stresses that the redeployment of staff have always done on a voluntary basis. "It does not require a pilot to fly against his will, it would create a security risk," said a spokesman for Libération. Referring to an agreement "win-win", he concedes that it is also to "defuse a dispute with pilot population."

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After heavily involved in fundraising efforts of the firewall in the euro area, Japan is preparing to support its European partners. The country plans to provide up to $ 50 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) to enable the institution to help the euro area to cope with the crisis, AFP reported citing an official from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. "Japan considers the precise amount that will provide the IMF," said the official who also spoke up to $ 50 billion, confirming information reported by the newspaper Asahi Shimbun. The exact involvement of Japan to raise funds from the IMF will be announced following a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 which takes place on 25 and 26 February in Mexico City.

However, Japan is not ready to sign a blank check. In a joint forum in the Financial Times, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and his Japanese counterpart Jun Azumi indicates that their countries are willing to increase their contributions to the International Monetary Fund but only on condition that the euro area strengthens its funds Relief and make greater efforts to resolve the long-term debt crisis. "The euro zone countries have made progress but we must still do more to achieve a lasting solution. Japan and Britain are longtime supporters of the IMF and we are ready to make our contribution to the global effort if certain conditions are met, "wrote George Osborne and Jun Azumi.

The institution led by Christine Lagarde seeks in effect to increase its reserves by $ 500 billion to support the euro area. But the IMF's role is crucial in resolving the debt crisis in the eurozone. An official with the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that if the institution was not associated with the bailout for Greece, the whole edifice would collapse for lack of support from private creditors. "We play a catalytic role. If we are here, both the public and the private sector will join in supporting a country, "said an IMF official, speaking to reporters in Washington on condition of anonymity.

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Question of economic efficiency then. One can only be struck by the complete lack of fiscal strategy of the Finance Bill 2012, currently under discussion in Parliament. In the eyes of officials of Bercy, the only way to increase tax revenues is to remove the niches or benefits made in the tax calculation.More than half of the 11 billion euros in additional savings are announced in late August and the removal of some old tax benefits. Now that the idea has been fueled largely with public opinion than the 104 billion euros in lost revenue for state coffers that are the fiscal and social niches, half are "very effective" or "inefficient", this solution is actually the easiest to implement. But it can serve as long-term program. As niches, whose real term is "tax expenditure", are as fundamental to encourage private investors to replace the public investor.No niches, no investment in France, which already sorely lacking.

Reform the income tax

The tax reform in 2012 will revolve around three major issues: how to bring balance between taxation of wealth and income? How to get to his income tax progressivity? What future for VAT?

To these questions, the UMP and the PS will provide different answers, of course bad credit payday advance. But the rules are the same for all. France can no longer raise taxes. The tax ratio-mandatory, ie the tax burden, amounted to 44.5% of GDP, close to its historical levels (44.9% in 1999). But conversely, the disastrous situation of public finances prevents them down.The "big bang" will be announced fiscal totally bounded in the universe: it will be a rebalancing in depth, but revenue constant.

Some lines of force emerge. The income tax in its present form, is on trial. Two transformations are emerging: reconsider its progressivity, that is to say goodbye slices. Or merge it with the CSG, an idea that has the favor of PS and a large part of the UMP. This merger should not be mistaken, broaden the tax base, will make the income tax fairer, but will also be more painful for the average incomes.

Similarly, it will not escape a VAT reform. Since 2008, 15 European countries have found, for fiscal consolidation, so much so that the rate of 19.6% French is now among the lowest in the euro area, 1 point lower than the average.Especially down at the other, the government chose to lower it for some sectors (food, building …).

Finally, there is the balance between taxation of income and wealth. The most sensitive issue. Recently, in Le Figaro, the budget minister Valérie Pécresse explained: "By raising taxes on savings, we compare the taxation of wealth from that of labor income." The road has only begun. One can imagine what awaits holders of wealth in the coming years …

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