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A rating agency on three, Standard & Poor's, has already withdrawn its prestigious AAA to France. One of his rival, Moody's, could soon follow, warned the Socialist candidate for president Francois Hollande. In the days following the presidential election.

Moody's placed under the supervision of the French debt rating earlier this year, he said in an interview with Journal du Dimanche. It "will make a decision on May 12, he argued. It will not be a consequence of the May 6 vote of the French. I warn, already, for our fellow citizens that there is no confusion (…) For now, I ask in any case to be assessed by the French and not by markets. "

How the candidate can know the date on which the decision will fall on Moody's France? Rating agencies maintain absolute secrecy about the content of their deliberations and their timing, until the publication of their decision. To predict the date of May 12, the candidate is based on the deadline set by the agency between his warning to the country concerned and the actual announcement. Moody's placed its ratings on negative watch on Feb. 14. It must give its verdict, probably too negative for the French-AAA before May 15  

Francois Hollande tried to clear the ground, should he be elected, and while his main opponent, Nicolas Sarkozy, waved the threat of an attack against France markets where Socialist victory no fax payday loan. Today, has defended the PS candidate, turbulence affecting Spain and Italy but not France. "It is particularly irresponsible for the incumbent to use the threat of speculative movements to persuade voters to abandon the alternation," he pleaded.

The first week of the next president, whoever he is, ahead eventful. First Moody's should actually decide before May 15 the fate of AAA it has issued so far in France. Then the Commission will publish its opinion on the stability program of France. This document, sent to Brussels last week, details how the government intends to restore the balance of public finances by 2016. Problem: it takes into account neither the promises of the outgoing president, nor those of his socialist opponent.

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Fitch upgrades Greece. After the swap of debt that was a huge success – over 80% participation – there is more good news for the country. "This exchange and losses imposed on creditors have raised the profile of debt service and reduces the risk of a repeat of its short-term repayment difficulties," said Fitch in a statement. The rating agency notes that the country-B, no longer considers Greece in default … for now. Three days ago, its American competitor, Moody's, had preferred to maintain the rating of Greece to C, the lowest in his scale. For its part, Standard & Poor's is expected to meet the CCC.

Fitch remains cautious nonetheless. She stressed that the challenges the country faces are important. The next decision that the agency will take vis-à-vis the Greek debt will be dictated by the analysis that she will do "performance of Greece in terms of the parameters set by the new EU-IMF and the ability and willingness of the sovereign State to honor its obligations related to restructured debt. '"A broad program success through maintaining significant budgetary surpluses, structural reforms and a concerted demonstrable economic recovery would put pressure bullish on the notes, "the agency says.

Troika, comprising representatives of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF, concurs. She said Greece will have to make further budgetary adjustment efforts in the next two years. The report reached this conclusion based on the primary surplus target (that is to say outside debt service) Greek public finances which should reach 4.5% in 2014. Given this goal will require "an adjustment path in the short term that implies a primary deficit of 1% in 2012, followed by an adjustment of 2.75% of GDP in 2013 and then in 2014".

According to the report, "there are significant risks that the decline of the debt is interrupted or even a reversal occurs as a result of economic shocks." In a more pessimistic scenario presented in the report, the country's debt could exceed 145% of GDP in 2020. In addition, a high degree of uncertainty and the debt burden makes "the uncertain outlook for Greece to be able to return to the markets at the end of the program" help, either in 2015, the report notes.

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Confusion will be enough oil to burn in minutes. Brent crude rose from $ 118 to $ 120 Wednesday at 13:30, while news agencies, citing the Iranian television channel Press TV evoked an immediate suspension of Iranian oil sales in six European countries including France, Greece, the Italy and Spain.

Finally, according to Al-Alam, Tehran has only "warned" that could disrupt its sales in retaliation for the embargo imposed on 23 January by the European Union (EU). But it will not do "for now and for humanitarian reasons because of the cold," said Al-Alam. Six European ambassadors were received by the Director for Western Europe of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hassan Tajik them said his country had found "other buyers". At 14:30, a barrel of Brent crude in London fell back side around 118.40 dollars. By climbing a few moments to 120 dollars a barrel returned to a level reached last summer, also close off the hook early 2011 highs at the beginning of the Libyan war.

Embargo unprecedented EU

The foreign ministers of the European Union adopted on January 23 a series of new economic sanctions against Iran, suspected of developing nuclear weapons program. An embargo "progressive" on imports of Iranian oil has been decided. The bill provides that existing contracts can be implemented until July 1. A delay obtained at the request of the European countries most dependent on Iranian crude, beginning with Greece, which buys 30% of its oil to the regime of Mullah, followed by Italy (13%) and Spain (12% ). Twenty-Seven took weeks to agree on the sanction regime. France for its part does not buy that about 3% of its black gold to Iran.

The progressive nature of the embargo would allow European countries to compensate for expected losses by supplies provided mainly by Saudi Arabia pledged to pump more crude. While Tehran, contrary to the statements of its leaders, is not guaranteed to sell its Asian customers that the oil would be shunned by Europe, the Islamic regime wants to use short-term increases in financial income generated by each spike courses. And perhaps divisions among its customers more or less vulnerable.

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Released in early 2010, a year and a half of recession caused by the bursting of the housing bubble, Spain could plunge into the red. Supported by the only engine of exports and tourism, the economy will suffer from the international slowdown. And domestic demand – consumption and investment – remains stalled, weighed down by record unemployment. Economists forecast a decline in activity over the next two quarters payday loan lenders. For the full 2012, Natixis expects an increase of GDP, limited to 0.2%, even more severe, Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects a fall of 0.7%. Two days before the election, the government had to accept lower growth for 2011 at 0.8% against 1.3%, less than half that expected by Brussels in the euro area.

Occupation: the red lantern of Europe

This is the black point of the Spanish economy.

The CAC 40 lost more than 2% at the close, Wall Street sells more than 1% during the session. The atmosphere is clearly not looking good in the financial markets on Tuesday. The bosses of U.S. and European central banks did nothing to calm them.

Two days before his last conference as president of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet is pessimistic for the euro area. "We believe that the euro area will be very moderate in the second half," said one who will be replaced by Mario Draghi on November 1. As for inflation, he said that the rate should remain "above 2% in the coming months. Next year, it should fall below. " These are all signs that suggest that interest rates should remain unchanged Thursday.

As for the United States, the head of the central bank, Ben Bernanke is more optimistic."Recent indicators, including those of new jobless claims show that it is likely that the sluggish growth in employment continues in the coming period," he warned. Before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, the Fed chairman has urged politicians to "avoid taking fiscal measures may impede the ongoing economic recovery business

A new week high voltage for Greece and the euro area. In fact, Sunday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that a delegation will travel to Athens this week to determine whether or not the country can benefit from the sixth round of eight billion euros of the loan in May 2010 , aid became vital for the country. The CEO of the institution, Christine Lagarde, has indeed met the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos on Sunday to discuss the conditions for the return of the IMF in the country to complete the fifth audit of the Greek economic program. The mission "will certainly place this week," said Fund.

In parallel, Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek finance minister, yesterday met with Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the ECB, to negotiate a restructuring of the Greek debt at a discount of between 40% and 50%.The minister said that "there is no alternative to restructuring." He said at the annual meeting of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an association of 450 banks in the world: "We are ready to take the necessary whatever the political cost." And said it was confident about the outcome of the vote in parliament of the new austerity plan, condition of the granting of new loans of the troika, because according to him "which member will take responsibility to lead Greece to a default? ".

Germany mobilized

A view shared by the French Minister for European Affairs, Jean Leonetti, who said Sunday that "Greece will avoid bankruptcy because it is the interest of the Greek state, the Greek people and is the interest of us all.If Greece were to fail tomorrow, it would cost more than if it did not go bankrupt, "he said on Radio France International business card.

The Heads of State and Government in July found an agreement to rescue Greece and broaden the scope of intervention of the relief fund of the zone (EFSF), including providing it with an instrument enabling it to market purchases of debt of states in difficulty. This agreement is being ratified by 17 national parliaments in the area. The vote of Germany, the country is the biggest contributor to EU aid plans appear on track.In a television interview Sunday night, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has indeed shown the outcome of the confidence vote scheduled Thursday in the Bundestag.

In addition, the German Chancellor said that allowing Greece to fail would destroy investor confidence in the euro area and could cause infection comparable to that following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

The rising social discontent in Greece

But Greece will probably have to wait beyond the holding of a Eurogroup meeting on Oct. 3 before a decision on the release of the next tranche of aid."Given the delay by the Troika mission (IMF, ECB and European Commission), I do not think that the next meeting of the Eurogroup, October 3, a decision on the sixth installment," said Sunday Washington Deputy German Finance Minister, Jörg Asmussen

In addition, the rising social discontent in Greece. Further strikes are planned next week before a general strike on October 19.

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Christine Lagarde has not found his dream home in Washington. Arrive early July to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF), she still lives temporarily in a furnished apartment, close to his office. "Initially, I looked pretty houses in the neighborhood of Georgetown, but I realized it would be impractical and it was better to look for an apartment. Now I prospect in areas not too far from my office, "said Le Figaro the new executive director of the monetary institution. "I have a pool, but not just to bathe. A pool where we could really swim … I have not taken a subscription to a sports club, but in my building there is a proper gym, "says the former champion synchronized swimming enthusiast – disciplined – physical exercise daily.

Since joining the IMF, it has worked and has not been able to enjoy a city that is much changed since she lived there in 1974, when she spent a year at a time of joy and studious the benches of the Holton-Arms School, a school for girls located in the posh western suburb. "In my new life in Washington, the work never stops. But the restaurants are ten times better than what I experienced, "It has already his favorites:" the canteen of the IMF and the Blue Duck Tavern at the Hyatt. " However, between briefings, seminars with the teams of the Fund that it must learn about his travels to London to Marseille for the G7 and Jackson Hole (Wyoming) for a symposium of central bankers to prepare his speeches and conversations with senior business leaders from every continent, Christine Lagarde has had little time to breathe.Those close to him are even already looking a little tired …

She will not rest this week as the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank are converging towards his office finance ministers and heads of central banks in 187 countries. For several days she prepares for the event. Moments of summer vacation between Marseille and Corsica with her partner, Xavier Giocanti may have seemed far away. To complicate matters, the latter, who founded his company in France, will not live with her in Washington. "He loves the U.S. capital. But his work is in the south of France. He promised to arrange to come one week per month. I also want it with me in some missions abroad, "says the former French Minister.This rate, "is it better than their last weekend aborted by meetings at the Elysee on Sunday afternoon?" Asks one close to the couple.

Critical time

Christine Lagarde did not wait two and half months to start to make its mark and recommend solutions to the crisis. In late August, on the occasion of his first major intervention in Jackson Hole, she took against the established European friends who have yet worked to his appointment in June She has dared to advocate for a rapid strengthening of bank capital of the Old Continent, as required by public money. Taking up the old refrain of the IMF, the former "good soldier" of Nicolas Sarkozy marked its independence vis-à-vis his former boss.Showing how far is now the time in his office in Bercy, when not agree with a decision of the Élysée, she smiled, gritted his teeth and let go … "is the head of State decides "*.

This position, criticized by many European officials, but in line with IMF recommendations for months, proved that the new patron of the institution was not, as some suspect, "the elegant performing" chosen by old European countries in crisis to justify their monopoly once more become anachronistic in the direction of the IMF. Even the laudatory article in the American edition of Vogue magazine in September of Christine Lagarde said that his French elegance accompanied by substance, "Lagarde is as natural, open and very feminine.His way of being simple, clear it rose through the ranks through his work seriously, not because of its ability to attract, "says the prestigious fashion publication. This is the first time a director of the IMF in Vogue poses cross-legged on a couch. Some saw a dim, fast debt crisis in Europe. But now that clears a little sordid chronicle by the New York tabloids and sexual exploits of his predecessor.

In his office on the 12th floor of the concrete block that is the IMF headquarters, Christine Lagarde strives to maintain at all times smile and kindness that are his trademark. However, she also knows that this is not that quality be the judge.Some leading experts in the world of high finance, as Simon Johnson and Raghuram Rajan, former chief economist of the IMF expressed concern that "non-economist" is selected for this feature to a critical time. It can be a handicap in an institution with more than doctors in economics per square meter than any other. Eager to rectify this perception, she was quick to declare taking office in early July: "I'm not going to brag about my qualifications or my lack of qualifications. The proof of the quality of the pudding is measured by how it is enjoyed by those who eat it, as the saying goes. I come with an open mind, with my ability to manage, leverage resources and my desire to help as many people as possible to the decisions and solutions … I will ask many questions.I will evaluate and I'll rely on the advice of those who know their sector. Without wishing to poets, all conductors can not play the piano, harp, violin and cello. I will try to be a good conductor. "To Christine Lagarde, the concert starts this week.

As shown in the tone of his speech a few days before the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London, Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington or on the financial news channel CNBC, the CEO wants to politely shake the leaders of the world, push for action to prevent a relapse into recession generally. Barack Obama, which she first received a phone call late August, requires only that.His plan to revive the use is consistent with IMF recommendations: do not cut right away in public spending.

His recent media offensive, the contrast between the start humiliating DSK, which has placed the IMF on the front page of American newspapers, not to mention the seriousness of the economic situation, are all eyes are on her. Not just those of "Planet Finance." "I am no longer anonymous to Washington. Many people recognize me on the streets and shops. The youngest often ask me to pose with them for a photo. And taxi drivers spotted me right away, "says she honestly.

It is too early to say whether it will be "Keynesian" or "monetarist". But in style, some have noted its refreshing approach in the austere environment of the IMF."I do not know if his style is a little sixteenth arrondissement, or if it is his sincere desire to be considerate towards its employees, but it is very human … I saw her invited to eat at his table his bodyguards after long hours of work, "says one observer. I must say that – status of the Fund requires – one of his bodyguards Bercy could follow. Not even his faithful collaborator for eighteen years, Sonia, who had started with her at Baker & McKenzie and on which it could rely at all times. Being a "woman power" always has a price …

* In "Christine Lagarde: investigation of the most powerful woman in the world," Cyril and Mary LACHEVRE Visot (Editions Michel Lafon).

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The great upheaval associated with the release of Daimler and Lagardère of EADS is imminent? The first holds 15% stake in the group and the second 7.5%. The State of Qatar would be entered into negotiations with the German government to buy half of the 15% stake in EADS held by Daimler, according to the weekly Der Spiegel. According to the paper, the Minister of Economy, Philipp Rösler, reportedly received two weeks ago members of the government of Qatar. Sunday, across the Rhine, no one has denied the report: the spokesman of the German said he could not comment on ongoing negotiations.

A day back in the middle of August. Nicolas Sarkozy will be in Paris today for lunch with François Fillon, then to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, herself back from vacation.

At a time when the euro area is attacked, France and Germany are trying to show a united front and show their determination to end the crisis. The mini-summit will be devoted to devising solutions to improve the governance of the euro area, which concern failures in financial markets. Although not conclusive a priori – "do not expect anything spectacular," said a spokesman yesterday the German government – the meeting should enable the two leaders to lay the groundwork for the future.

Sensitivity of the issue Eurobonds will however not address, contrary to the hopes markets.Berlin's opposition to the creation of common obligations to countries in the euro area has long been known. The Merkel government has good reason to be against: issued in the name of all countries, eurobonds have an interest rate equal to the average rate in effect in all countries. It would therefore be higher than that which currently takes Berlin. Until now, France is merely to show little enthusiasm for these Eurobonds.

Yesterday, Paris is out of the woods to show his unity with his partner. "The Euro-bonds are not an adequate response today. Common issue bonds requires a degree of economic integration and budgetary countries that we have not met, "says one as president fast cash. Paris joins Berlin on another "nyet" to increase the capacity of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), now with 440 billion euros."The level of funding is appropriate," they say at the Elysee.

Hours before his meeting with Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy has discussed with Francois Fillon and French public finances. Lead to disappointing growth, the government has no choice: even a few months before the elections, it must take further austerity measures. France, which is followed closely by the markets, absolutely must bring its deficit to 4.6% of GDP in 2012.

Niche in their sights

To achieve this, taking into account a sluggish economy, the figure of 10 billion euros of savings is often cited. But do not confirm Bercy. In the entourage of Valérie Pécresse, the budget minister, it says only that "these savings are the result of efforts on spending cuts and tax loopholes."Last week, he had urged his counterparts from the euro area to take all necessary measures, including the creation of Euro-bonds, to avoid disintegration of the single currency "that would be an economic catastrophe, including for the United Kingdom ".

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