Occupation: the red lantern of Europe

This is the black point of the Spanish economy.

Shortly before 4 am, France, Germany and the euro zone countries are agreed after intense negotiations with creditor banks on a 50% discount on debt securities Greek removing the last obstacle to a comprehensive plan of response to the debt crisis. The contribution of the private sector, coupled with an effort of the States of the euro area of ​​130 billion euros, will bring the Greek debt of over 160% of GDP today to 120% in 2020, said Nicolas Sarkozy.The French president also said that the means of relief funds in the euro area (EFSF) would be "multiplied" in order to reach "1.4 trillion dollars," or "1000 billion euros." For Nicolas Sarkozy, "the summit has to adopt elements of a comprehensive response, an ambitious response, a credible response to the crisis in the euro area". Even if the plan is still very fragile if the economy of Greece does not improve, he said.

The surge in the yen threatens Japan

For its part, the IMF Executive Director Christine Lagarde welcomed the "substantial progress" made at the EU summit in Brussels, welcomed the leaders of the euro area have set up "a program that will respond to the crisis in the region " check cash advance.Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, for its part considered that a "new era" began in Greece, speaking of a "new beginning" with this debt reduction Greek.

On the macroeconomic front, the Central Bank of Japan announced Thursday a further easing of monetary policy to fight against soaring yen that threatens the recovery of the Japanese economy.The institute has decided to increase 5 trillion yen (47 billion) purchases of treasury bills, increasing to 55,000 billion yen (519 billion) the maximum amount it spends on purchases of government bonds, corporate bonds and other financial securities, and loans at preferential rates.

The euro has strengthened

In addition, retail sales continued to decline in Japan in September, from 1.2% yoy, due to the fall in purchases of TVs after an exceptional run in early summer, announced the Ministry of Economy Thursday. However, car sales have stopped their dive.Consumers remain cautious overall spending due to fears generated by the earthquake and tsunami in the northeast of the archipelago on March 11 and the Fukushima nuclear accident they caused.

Side values, the action of the group of cameras Olympus soared 23% Thursday at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, following the resignation of its CEO Tsuyoshi Kikukawa, accused by his British predecessor Michael Woodford to have overcharged acquisitions between 2006 and 2008.

The euro has strengthened, buoyed by hopes of resolving the crisis in Europe. It was worth 106.26 yen and 1.3975 dollars in Tokyo Thursday morning, 1.3908 against the dollar and 105.98 yen in New Yok the night before.

Finally, oil was up, after the sharp fall the previous day in New York.In electronic trading in the morning, a barrel of "light sweet crude" gained 1.11 dollar to 91.31 dollars a barrel while Brent North Sea crude for December delivery took 70 cents to 109.61 dollars.

The titles of Chinese banks have continued to decline on the stock exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong in recent months, reaching their lowest level in two years recently cheapest personal loan rates.These dismal performances reflect investor concerns on the issues of debt incurred by local governments in China, revealed by an unpublished government report last June. Provinces and municipalities have accumulated at least 1.16 trillion euros of debt in late 2010, with 80% financed by Chinese banks. Nearly 25% of these loans expire at the end of the year.

The explosion of informal loans, in an environment of tight credit, also weighed on banks, who have seen private individuals and companies take almost 50 billion euros over the first two weeks of September, a large part is then paid out of any legal framework.

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The dismantling of Dexia revolve around two main axes. First part of the device, sales lead to much gnashing of teeth. Side France, the discussion focuses on the sale of a portfolio of over EUR 70 billion – mostly loans to local authorities – an entity owned 65% by Caisse des Depots, which drags its feet. Until more details, the Investment Committee of the CDC has just issued an advisory opinion but negative according to our sources.La Banque Postale will take a minimum the job of funder community, hitherto devoted to its competitor.

At the same time, Dexia will sell its retail banking subsidiary in Belgium, Dexia Bank Belgium, the Belgian partner probably common across the Quiévrain. The Wall Street Journal, Price, hotly debated, could turn around 4 billion euros, well below the value expected by shareholders. As Fortis sold to BNP Paribas in 2008, the Belgian government's goal is to lean then the network to a private actor. For its part, Luxembourg completes its participation in the recovery of BIL through a consortium led by Qatari investors. Denizbank, the Turkish subsidiary, is also about to be sold.

The second component of dismantling the management of residual interests.While the Spanish or Italian Sabadell Crediop seem almost impossible to sell, will remain at Dexia a portfolio of nearly 95 billion euros in loans, of which 12 billion of government bonds devices in Europe. It is this "bad bank" guarantee promised by France and Belgium will apply. Sunday, the two countries should share the burden away. In 2008, Belgium had made to their account 60% of the security so much higher than 150 billion euros. This time, the camp Yves Leterme wanted to reduce its share of the bill, arguing that the French management had little Belgian interests associated with the management since 2008.

Impact rating

Signal of the high stakes, Prime Minister François Fillon had made the trip to Brussels on Sunday to meet with Belgian prime minister Yves Leterme.The talks, which have been associated with Jean-Luc Dehaene and Pierre Mariani, President and Group CEO, helped lead to a solution "fruit of intensive consultations with all partners involved," insisted the two sides.

The two countries share a triple objective: secure banking on their own territory, without violating the rights of minority shareholders, and while limiting the cost of this debacle for public finances. Friday, Moody's had also placed the rating on negative watch Belgium. Council of Ministers to be held in Belgium on Sunday night, after the Board of Directors of the bank.

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While a government source announced the "initiatives" to support Franco-German Greece to face serious funding problems of its debt, the Elysee Palace denied."There will be no Franco-German initiative today," said the president requested by the AFP, saying also that no decision had been made about a possible speaking of Nicolas Sarkozy to Following his meeting scheduled at 17 am (Paris time) with the President of the European Union Herman Van Rompuy.

The Elysee was also opposed to a very firm denied rumors that a scenario out of Greece to the euro would be discussed at the Elysee. We emphasized above all the character "drama" of this to the Greeks themselves, but also for the euro area.

"To ensure compliance with the commitments of the July 21"

"This is not a desirable solution, we do nothing to make it desirable," confided a senior official Monday night Elysian following folder every minute."We try to be consistent: we are about to present to Parliament the rescue plan that was decided on 21 July in Brussels. We do not prepare in the wings is another scenario that would offer the exact opposite, "he continues.

The state still remains fragile in which finances are Greek, "We try to convince them to do everything to achieve compliance with the commitments of July 21," says this source. Tuesday evening, the Head of State may wish to print this message in a clear and solemn.

At the London Stock Exchange, the FTSE-100 is 0.46% to 5107.30 points while the Dax-30 from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, after opening steady, widening its losses (-1.72%) in 5582 , 50 points.

Markets are waiting with some anxiety the president's speech to the U.S. central bank, Ben Bernanke, the outlook for the U.S. economy. An hour and a half ago (1430), the U.S. government has released its second estimate of GDP for the second quarter.The consensus growth overseas could fall by 0.2 point to 1.1% from the first estimate. On Thursday, weekly jobless claims rose. Causing a sharp decline in U.S. stock markets.

In this uncertain environment expected on ads across the Atlantic, the euro resumed slightly against the dollar Friday in a market without much volume. To 11 hours in Paris, the European currency was worth 1.4440 dollars against 1.4378 dollars on Thursday night.

In the euro area, the lack of major macroeconomic news does not help to give a clear trend to markets.This morning, the companies manufacturing have revised their forecasts down slightly investment for this year and expect a 14% increase (against 15% previously).

The bank's head Cac 40, Peugeot sinks

Essilor International: -0.11% to 53.07 euros

Essilor International in the first semester a turnover of 2.06 billion euros, up 6.9%, the band announced via a press release issued in the edition of Les Echos to appear Friday.

Financials

The ban on short selling financial stocks on Thursday was extended to France, like Italy, Spain and Belgium, and the Financial Markets Authority (AMF) said it would review its position by late September.

This decision only briefly managed to reassure investors.If this decision technique to limit selling pressure on the sector, it does not address the fears that persist on European banks and their exposure to countries in need. After posting the largest gains of the Paris stock in early trading, financial stocks are once again very attacked: Societe Generale lost 0.91% to 21.75 euros, BNP Paribas declined more moderately from 0.60% to 34.15 euros, Credit Agricole down 1.31% to 6.42 euros while Natixis closed the show the worst performance (-3.38% to 2.74 euros).

In an interview with Le Figaro, the executive director of Credit Agricole said the group has "significant cash reserves" and "not difficult to obtain financing."

Conversely, other cyclical stocks, car manufacturers, will gradually take after opening the largest declines in the Paris stock exchange.Peugeot, which bought between 12 and 22 August last, about 2% of its capital amounting to 92,010,000 euros, reduced its losses (-1.54% to 19.18 euros), after having dropped to 2.05%. The title, however, fell more than 35% over the last month. A little stronger, Renault drops 0.57% to 26.05 euros.

Total: -0.72% to 32.50 euros

Total expected to present a reorganization in the fall of scale of its operations downstream, with a planned merger of its refining and petrochemicals, according to Les Echos, citing union sources.

As for oil, prices were mixed Friday morning during electronic trading in Asia, in a sluggish market, before the highly anticipated speech of the head of the U.S. central bank (Fed).In morning trading, a barrel of "light sweet crude" for delivery in October gave 10 cents to 85.20 dollars per barrel of Brent North Sea crude for October delivery took 19 cents to 110.81 dollars.

Note that APRR and Bel Cheese (1.95%, to 165 euros) will publish their interim results after market close.

In total, the plans submitted earlier this year targeted the elimination of 25,000 jobs, against 35,000 in the first half of 2010. The stigma of the crisis have not yet been erased: PSE 507 registered in the first half, it's still 40% more than in 2008.

Increase job creation

These figures confirm a trend already highlighted by the INSEE and Dares. The net job creation continued to rise in the first half, despite the uncertainty on growth.126,500 jobs were created in the market sector, a trend that accelerated in the second quarter.

The particular industry, particularly affected by the PSE, recorded in job creation for the first time in ten years. "With the acquisition, the use of overtime in the industry declined, giving way to new hires," Dominique Barbet analysis, economist at BNP Paribas. These new jobs, however, remained insufficient to curb unemployment, increased again in May and June

Substitution effects

The decrease in the number of PES is also to be taken with caution. Part of the ruptures conventional recorded since the scheme in 2008 could indeed have substituted for the redundancies, and thus contribute to an artificially low numbers.The development of off mobility and the increased use of temporary and fixed term contract, could also have played.

With a growth rate in 2011 likely to be less than expected, this downward trend may not otherwise be pursued so as frank. The PMI index released Tuesday by Markit already reveals a contraction of industrial activity in August. Business leaders surveyed this month said a volume of new orders down, the most severe recorded for 27 months. The rate of creation of posts at the highest level in four months, it does not yet felt.

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Now that the United States have been degraded, no other country rated "AAA" can consider itself completely immune to medium term. As for lower-rated countries, they risk having their refinancing terms to harden significantly. In the end, all governments will have to redouble our efforts to reduce their deficits. Even at the sacrifice for some growth in its infancy.

To mitigate the magnitude of the shock, the world leaders have stepped up telephone interviews during the weekend. No formal meeting not held, although, according to South Korean authorities, a conversation at the G20 may have taken place Sunday morning after the G7 Ministers and Sherpas were spoken in the night from Saturday .Sunday, late in the day, Paris and Berlin have issued a statement reaffirming their commitment to adopt before the end of September, the agreement of July 21 on the Rescue of Greece. The schedule should reassure markets that doubt. They also praised the efforts of Spain and especially those of Italy, two weak links in the euro area at present.

Whopping "Noting" the willingness of member states to accelerate fiscal consolidation, the European Central Bank, which held Sunday evening an emergency meeting, said in the wake, it would implement its Bond Buyback Program "actively". The ECB is indeed in the short term, the only institution capable of acting. As long as the agreement signed on July 21 has not been ratified, the European financial stability can not afford to intervene across the entire area.Hence the pivotal role of the bank in Frankfurt, which has been slow, however, to engage in battle.

"At its meeting on Thursday, the ECB disappointed by not announcing the acquisition of the Italian debt, says Laurence Boone, chief economist for Europe Bofa-Merrill Lynch. But the decision Friday by the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, to accelerate by one year the return to a balanced budget should meet Jean-Claude Trichet and facilitate the intervention of the ECB on the Italian debt. " Such a move will he work? When she flew to the rescue of Portugal, Greece and Ireland, the ECB has repurchased approximately 12% of the debt of these countries, or 74 billion euros. With Spain and Portugal, the stock of debt of 2300 billion, which means that the bank in Frankfurt will need at least 240 billion on the table if it wants to weigh.A colossal sum.

The other issue that will come back, throbbing throughout the week for growth. In turn, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England should speak on recent developments in the economy in their countries. They should take note of the proliferation of signs of slowing down. As for the euro area, it falls within the publication period of its growth figures for the second quarter ahead disappointing. France is in sight. "Given the slowdown in household consumption growth may have been zero in the second quarter, after the sharp rise in first quarter" advance Laurence Boone. What increasing pessimism and weaken even more the euro area.

The DJ opened up, boosted by a salvo of results of large U.S. companies, mostly better than expected.The increase accelerated after a speech by President Barack Obama suggesting that discussions were progressing toward an agreement to reduce the budget deficit and an increase in the ceiling of the debt of the United States as we approach the deadline of August 2.

The euro rose against the dollar Tuesday, in exchange tinged with caution while the market showed himself optimistic about the outcome of the extraordinary summit of the Greek debt scheduled for Thursday in Brussels. Around 1800 GMT (8:00 p.m. in Paris), the single European currency was worth 1.4177 dollars against 1.4117 dollars around 2100 GMT Monday. The euro rose against the Japanese currency to 111.91 yen against 111.59 yen Monday.

The current oil futures ended up Tuesday, benefiting from a weaker dollar ahead of the summit of the euro area Thursday and hopes of solving the problem of the debt of the United States.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for August delivery ended at 97.50 dollars a barrel, up $ 1.57, or 1.64%, having fluctuated between 95.93 and 98.65 dollars.

On the macroeconomic front, investors will be watching especially housing starts and building permits in the United States. Two statistics that mark once.

Values ​​to follow

The side of values, after the close of Wall Street, several major groups have announced their quarterly results.

Pleasant surprise on the side of IBM rose 8% of its profits in the second quarter to 3.66 billion. The adjusted earnings per share was 3.09 dollars against 3.02 dollars expected by analysts. Turnover was up 12% to $ 26.7 billion against $ 25.4 billion expected.Please note, sales of servers rose 17% year on year to 4.7 billion. For the full year, IBM raised its forecast for earnings per share to 13.25 dollars against 13.15 dollars earlier. The title earns 5.67% to 1885.21 dollars.

Always on the side of values, Cisco confirmed the elimination of 6,500 jobs to reduce production costs. The group is facing stiff competition, especially from China, the market for Internet routers. Price reductions are higher expectations. According to IDC, Cisco, which holds 64% market share, experienced a contraction of 16% of its sales of routers in value in the first quarter. The title earns 1.46% to 15.66 dollars.

In addition, the producer of fertilizer Mosaica announced a profit of 649.2 million dollars above expectations of analysts.Turnover was up 54% to $ 2.86 billion and also higher than expectations.Farmers' demand remains strong, particularly in wheat, and weather conditions have supported the group's sales.

For its part, the steel producer, Steel Dynamics (+4.6% to 16.14 dollars) announced a profit of $ 98.7 million and revenue of $ 2.08 billion, all two above expectations.

Also note, MSC Industrial Direct (0.64% to 65.79 dolars) has announced the acquisition of American Tool Supply and its subsidiary American Specialty Grinding without specifying the amount of the transaction.

According to the Financial Times, the fourth group HNA Group Air China would be the favorite to take over the subsidiary of General Electric GE SeaCo.

Moreover, according to Bloomberg AMR Corp (0.41% to 4.93 dollars), the parent of American Airlines, could be divided between Airbus and Boeing single-aisle aircraft order it plans to spend.American Airlines is negotiating with manufacturers for the purchase of more than 250 aircraft.

The American insurance company AIG (0.80% to 27.87 dollars) study the stock market into a stake in its subsidiary, ILFC aircraft leasing, operation that could bring him back from 1.5 to 2 billion, reports the Wall Street Journal Monday.

As the new Executive Director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, to take office Tuesday, the organization welcomed the developments."We welcome the commitment of the Eurogroup to a funding strategy that ensures that the Greek economic program is fully insured," said the spokesman for the IMF, Caroline Atkinson. No details however were given about a possible date on which the Board could meet to release the funds.

Berlin puts pressure

If these 12 billion euros to Greece should avoid going bankrupt in the short term, it is not enough to save the country permanently and fully reassure the financial markets. For this, the country has called for a second bailout International 110 billion euros. Finance ministers of the euro zone have promised yesterday decisions "in the coming weeks." For its part, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, more prudent, spoke of an agreement by the fall only.Berlin looks indeed to be certain that Greece implement austerity measures quickly that the country has promised. "After the release of the fifth installment of the countries of the euro area and the IMF, the next step must be addressed decisively: the measures passed in Athens should be implemented quickly. Privatization, for example, must be launched without delay, "responded the German Minister of Finance. Response of Athens: the austerity plan of 28.4 billion euros will be implemented before mid-September.

Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain could knock on the door

These two months of rest should also help to advance on a second rescue plan 110 billion euros. Finance ministers of the euro area have not spoken on this subject last night.They expect to clarify the private sector, banks and other creditors, imposed by Berlin to a new plan to help decide. "The details and extent of the involvement of private and official sources of additional funding will be determined in the coming weeks," they said.

Time is running out: Ireland and Portugal may need a new international aid. As for Spain and Italy, both countries are under pressure from rating agencies. "The failure of European political leaders to resolve the crisis quickly and decisively hits the rest of the euro area," says Ben May, economist at Capital Economics. The United States pressed more in Europe to solve its debt problems to avoid a global impact."If Greece fell deeper into recession following the new austerity measures, it could reduce the willingness of governments to implement additional fiscal measures," says Ben May.

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