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The reproduction is better than output. In this season of activity budgets in 2009, from automobiles to zoos, most areas in the commune down. The numbers of births do not appear as brightest. INSEE has identified 821 000 last year, only 7 400 fewer than in 2008. This decline is described as "negligible" by demographers, not even "the line thickness. Especially that 2008 was a leap year, which was added mechanically 2 000 births, INSEE said.

The economic crisis it have no impact on family plans? "For the moment we receive no effect, confirming France Prioux, a researcher at the INED (National Institute of Demographic Studies). This is not the case in South Korea, which announced a fall of 4.4% of births in 2009."More and more people were delayed or canceled their wedding plans during the recession," he told AFP Kim Dong-hoy, head of population studies. The Land of the Morning Calm, with Singapore and Taiwan, who is experiencing the lowest fertility rates in the world (1.15 children per woman of childbearing age).

In the U.S., it is allowed since last summer that the crisis will lead, as is customary, by a decline in births. Only data for 2008 are known, and they show a decline of almost 2% over 2007 (4 247 000, a record 50 years), according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Across the Atlantic, economic cycles and demographic change strictly in parallel, as evidenced by the four previous recessions (1974, 1981, 1991 and 2001).

This determinism is understandable in societies where birth control is more the rule than the exception.The Ireland still offers a cons-almost perfect example. The country traditionally more pronatalist in Europe – 16.9 newborns per thousand inhabitants per year, against 13 in France and 8.3 in Germany – has suffered the most severe recession in the euro area. Despite a fall of 7.5% of GDP last year's births increased 1%, according to estimates by the Directorate of Health. Explanation of the Central Statistics Office: the baby-boom years of 1980, which followed the entry deDublin in the European Union, have become parents.

The problems of income and unemployment are not always the enemy of babies. Some even see an incentive. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate 1992 and theoretician of the family economy, showed a woman who loses her job will be available to raise a child.And the "opportunity cost", as economists say – the income to which he must renounce – will be less than if she had voluntarily quit her job. Also in times of crisis, family values are rising and fertility recovered.

Demographers are nevertheless cautious about the resilience of the French birth rate. As the U.S. federal government last year amounted to 291 $ 570 "price" to raise a child to adulthood, our system of family assistance and public benefits makes probably the "investment" less risky for couples. History shows that despite all our demographic has always responded to crises. "The Great Depression of the 1930s had rarefied births, as the oil shock of 1973.The fertility rate (per woman) fell to its lowest level in post-war (1.66) during the economic recession of 1993, "says Ariane Pailhé in the social portrait of France (2009 edition ). Why would it do differently this time?

Let's bracket the explanation, very controversial, which gives dynamism to the French foreign families. False, according to Insee, "The share of children born to foreign parents, which amounted to 6.9% in 2008 has changed little from 1998 (6.6%). The reality is more mundane, as explained Gilles Pison, demographer at INED: "Since the baby boom of the postwar period, there is a fairly high stability of the predisposition of couples to have kids. What has changed is they have more later.Initially, it helped reduce the annual number of births, then do go through a process of catching up. "Thus the fertility rate is 1.66 children pressed in 1993 to nearly 2 today.

Economic Crisis Will it change the "desire for children? Another focal point on youth unemployment. "It could he delay the time when we" settled "and you have children? It is unfortunate that the records of Vital Statistics do not indicate the rank of new-born of each family. For on the number of first births that the crisis could have the greatest consequences, "warns France Prioux. It is unlikely that France soon lose its leadership position population of the European Union.It hosts over 800 000 babies a year when Germany's powerful product in less than 700 000, despite reproductive capacity but much more numerous untapped.

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"Demography: French dynamism is confirmed

"DOCUMENT – The demographic results 2009 (insee.fr)

Osamu Masuko and Philippe Varin has been clear at the motor show in Geneva: the respective presidents of Mitsubishi Motors and Peugeot have refused any alliance capital, which they deemed "inappropriate."

The outcome was expected, since some sources close to the matter had acknowledged that the proposed strategic merger was stalled. The French manufacturer had to be majority stake in its Japanese counterpart.

But the results from Mitsubishi – the Japanese carmaker reported Wednesday a net loss of 25.7 billion yen (195 million euros) over the first nine months of fiscal year 2009-2010 decreased by 29 3% – and the level of recovery action deemed "overvalued" by PSA eventually convince a capital alliance would not be appropriate.Philippe Varin, outside the motor show, said he wanted to maintain "financial strength" of the group.

PSA was confirmed in December of discussions for a "strategic partnership", according to information from the Japanese press that the French group was preparing to buy 30 to 50% stake in Mitsubishi Motors.

Both manufacturers have nevertheless confirmed that they will continue their industrial cooperation, particularly in "the environment and products," said the president of Mitsubishi. In an interview with Echos on Wednesday, the president of PSA has raised the possibility of building with the Japanese automaker a "small car, which is sold under our three brands, like the 4×4 today.

The French automaker announced last February 10 a net loss of 1.161 billion euros in fiscal 2009, more than three times more than the 363 million euro loss a year ago. The turnover amounted to decline from 10.9% to 48.417 billion euros.

Mitusbishi Motors closed up 0.76% at the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 0.31% to 10,253 points.

He had said in November he confirmed Monday. The British confectioner Cadbury rejects bid officially launched by the giant U.S. Food Kraft Foods. In a paper stock, the confectioner highlights the objectives of long-term growth above expectations to show the low supply of Kraft.

Cadbury expects organic growth of 5 to 7% per year instead of 4 to 6%. The profit margin would rise between 16 and 18% by 2013 instead of a margin of about 15% in 2011. He waits finally growth of dividend per share "double digit" from 2010. All of which explains why Cadbury's assets are worth more than 10 billion pounds (about 11 billion euros) proposed by Kraft Foods.

"Kraft Cadbury tries to buy at a discount, to provide some growth in its business model attractive to non-conglomerate low growth, irritated Roger Carr, the chairman of candy in the document.

Hershey, Nestle and Ferrero instantly

The rejection of the offer Kfrat opens an avenue to other agri-food specialists. According to CEO Todd Stitzer British group, "third parties" have actually indicated their interest but he refuses to name them yet.

The U.S. chocolate maker Hershey is in a strong position. Last month, Todd Stitzer had clearly said he would prefer a merger with the latter rather than Kraft because Hershey is already a partner of Cadbury in the United States. The Italian group Ferrero and Swiss giant Nestle are also in the race.

After four quarters of decline (-9.3% a year since the second quarter 2008), the slight upward trend is confirmed by figures from INSEE based on those of Notaries from promises of sale signed in Q2 year. While some professional networks, which Laforet Immobilier Wednesday, talk of a recovery, the increase in prices is to be interpreted with great caution.

Indeed, over the past twelve months, property prices remain former fallen sharply, from about 8%, and the number of transactions continues to fall. From September 2008 to September 2009, 550,000 housing transactions have been recorded in metropolitan France, down 25% compared to transactions a year earlier.

Increase of 0.7% in Ile-de-France

During the third quarter of 2009, prices of existing homes rose by 0.7% in Ile-de-France, driven by rising house prices (+1.9%). In one year, the decline is 8.3%: -7.5% for apartments and -9.5% for houses. In Paris, apartment prices rose 1.4% (-7.2% yoy) and those houses by 5.8% (-8.7% yoy). In the provinces, INSEE noted an increase in the third quarter versus the second quarter, 0.1% (+0.6% for the apartment and -0.3% for houses). In one year, the price of existing homes in the province decreased by 7.9% (-6.9% for apartments and -8.5% for houses).

A slow recovery

Improving conditions of loans to individuals for several months have been felt in the housing market. For the economist Michael Mouillart, the market is overtaking its lowest point."The worst is behind us, but the recovery will be slow. The rise in unemployment will slow the pace of recovery, but will not compromise, "analysis" he added that during the year 2010, sales volume should reach the former levels of about 500,000 to 525,000, and prices rise by about 2% to 3%. Mathilde Lemoine, Director of Economic Studies of the HSBC bank, however, is more reserved, "in 2010, stagnant wages due to rising unemployment, rising prices rose in nine and stabilization loan rates should influence the solvency of households and hence on home sales. "

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"DOCUMENT – All figures Notaries

The numbers of network Laforet Immobilier

Nothing very serious, but a real nervousness gripped the market on weekends. French values are clearly divided down for the fourth straight session and Wall Street began a real consolidation.

The publication of poor results by the computer manufacturer Dell, whose profits have halved in a year, has certainly cast a pall. Therefore, the decline was widespread in technology stocks in the whole document: Among the largest declines over the weekend, tech stocks, but also banks, real estate and many cyclical industries.

In fact, beyond these poor results, the market consolidates because investors are worried about the strength of the recovery, the deteriorating public finances and relapse indicators on housing states USA.Therefore, in the absence of fresh news can revive the dynamic market, investors have preferred to take profits. To top it off, President Obama held a relapse of the activity was not excluded if the recovery efforts were abandoned and the Japanese authorities have recognized that the country has fallen into recession, with falling prices for the seventh consecutive month.

After two years of crisis that we have known, investors have seen others, but should not the signs of depression are increasing, with an avalanche of bad economic data and disappointing results.The virtuous circle that has established a stock exchange, with expectations of gradual recovery in activity and improvement in profits needs to be supported, if the correction could increase.

For now, the indexes are still near the highest: more than 10,000 points for the Dow Jones, over 3,700 for the CAC 40. We must beware of making catastrophism, the scenario out of recession is good for equities, the key is to remember that the current consolidation is beneficial because it restores margin for operations to start rising.

While waiting to see clearer, gold opportunity to play its full role investment haven to more than $ 1,100 an ounce in London.

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