Roman Lucazeau, Chargé de Mission in the Business Institute, details the mechanisms at work in the test programs.

THE FIGARO.FR. – Why submit programs of candidates for this test?

Roman Lucazeau. – Although, compared to the 2007 presidential campaign, the programs of the two main candidates are more accurate, they still gray areas and are based on slightly different economic scenarios. This makes comparison difficult. So we tried to apply the same economic variables: growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, by 2017. We also wanted to discover what happened to the public finances if the programs were implemented with, notably, lower growth than that provided by the candidates, for example, that France has known, on average, over the past decade.  

Originally, this type of exercise is applied by the financial authorities to banks. These are subject to economic scenarios degraded to assess their strength in case of economic crisis. We use a similar method to test the ability of candidates to achieve their stated goal (zero deficit in 2016 for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2017 for Francis Holland).

But in a crisis, a candidate can always abandon its initial program

.

Absolutely. We test the strength of their roadmap, as defined during the election campaign, in a worse position than they anticipate cheap business cards. We evaluate today's promises and do not prejudge the future president of the reactions in case of contingencies.  

How does this model?

We leave the bases nominee programs (eg growth rate, the level of taxes and public spending …) and against which they built their proposals. These assumptions are public and have been developed by their campaign teams. We determine how the deficit and debt change if we change some parameters on the basis of data and public reporting, the INSEE, the Court of Auditors and of Bercy. The details of our methodology is available on our website.

How do you ensure objectivity of your approach?

We submitted the candidates' platforms to the same constraints: same inflation, even growth, even drift government spending or health insurance, etc.. The differences between results are explained by the differences between the programs themselves. Debt strategy of the two candidates based on both on growth, tax increases and budget savings. But Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande do not intend to use these levers to the same extent. Their programs do not react the same way a change of parameters.

A rating agency on three, Standard & Poor's, has already withdrawn its prestigious AAA to France. One of his rival, Moody's, could soon follow, warned the Socialist candidate for president Francois Hollande. In the days following the presidential election.

Moody's placed under the supervision of the French debt rating earlier this year, he said in an interview with Journal du Dimanche. It "will make a decision on May 12, he argued. It will not be a consequence of the May 6 vote of the French. I warn, already, for our fellow citizens that there is no confusion (…) For now, I ask in any case to be assessed by the French and not by markets. "

How the candidate can know the date on which the decision will fall on Moody's France? Rating agencies maintain absolute secrecy about the content of their deliberations and their timing, until the publication of their decision. To predict the date of May 12, the candidate is based on the deadline set by the agency between his warning to the country concerned and the actual announcement. Moody's placed its ratings on negative watch on Feb. 14. It must give its verdict, probably too negative for the French-AAA before May 15  

Francois Hollande tried to clear the ground, should he be elected, and while his main opponent, Nicolas Sarkozy, waved the threat of an attack against France markets where Socialist victory no fax payday loan. Today, has defended the PS candidate, turbulence affecting Spain and Italy but not France. "It is particularly irresponsible for the incumbent to use the threat of speculative movements to persuade voters to abandon the alternation," he pleaded.

The first week of the next president, whoever he is, ahead eventful. First Moody's should actually decide before May 15 the fate of AAA it has issued so far in France. Then the Commission will publish its opinion on the stability program of France. This document, sent to Brussels last week, details how the government intends to restore the balance of public finances by 2016. Problem: it takes into account neither the promises of the outgoing president, nor those of his socialist opponent.

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We knew the fabric of SMEs insufficient in France. Comparisons with the German model, its "large SMEs' innovative and exporting family, were hardly flattering. But the new method adopted by INSEE to classify firms by size is even better in this light French weakness. The definition of the company formalized the end of 2008 no longer regarded as subsidiary companies of its own: it links them to the group they belong. In a study published on Tuesday, INSEE describes the corporate landscape of hexagonal resulting from this change. Conclusion: "The production base is much more concentrated than it seemed."

The breakdown by company size – large companies, medium-sized companies (ETI), SMEs and microenterprises – is turned upside down. In 2009, France had 2.7 million and entities (excluding agriculture and financial sector). Under the old way of counting, only a hundred of them exceeded the threshold of 5,000 employees that large companies. With the new definition and the inclusion of the concept of group, they spend a little over 200.

So, they employ 28% of employees, which is double what was the scope of large enterprises in the previous definition fast payday loan. They carry 33% of the value added (or 17% of GDP, also double the valuation date chosen) and account for half of exports. Similarly, with this new definition, the share of large enterprises in research and development expenses increased from less than 40% to 60%.

SMEs overrated

"Symmetrically, the weight of the other three categories of firms is less important," said INSEE. It is SMEs whose share "decreases the most." For nearly half of these companies with 10 to 249 employees are subsidiaries of a group or a larger enterprise.

Another lesson of the study, the weight of each sector is modified for the benefit of the industry, as the subsidiaries making or supporting business functions, previously classified in the service sector, are reinstated. The industrial workforce is located in "reinflated" by more than 2 points, representing 27.5% of total employees.

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Axa will grow in non-life insurance in Asia. The French group is about to get their hands on some of the activities of the Sino-British HSBC. The Ace Group and Zurich Australian QBE were also in the race. The announcement of the transaction could, according to a source familiar with the matter, taken as soon as next week, as reported by several Chinese newspapers. At the headquarters of Axa, there was no comment Tuesday.

HSBC hoped to sell all of its activities damage valued around 750 million euros to 1 billion of net premiums collected in 2011. But the British would have resolved to give the geographical batch. And it is on Asia, the birthplace of the banking group, Axa would concentrate.

If it ends, the operation would be part of the new strategic plan for 2015 Axa. This project includes the objectives of growth, cost reduction and redeployment of capital to business lines and countries most profitable. Axa has recently withdrawn and certain activities in developed economies, by disposing of assets in Canada and Great Britain.

The group tries to conquer China for several years. He began a partnership in China in late 2010, ICBC (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China), the country's largest bank. ICBC had entered the capital of the joint venture specializing in life insurance with Axa had founded the China Metallurgical Group Minmetal and was committed to a distribution agreement. HSBC had begun the sale of its non-life insurance in September.

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Negotiations between the two partners have stumbled on the issue of management of pension costs. The agreement could finally be announced early next week fast cash online. But sources familiar with the FT interviewed by the warning that the agreement can still be challenged by a cons-bid Access Industries, owner of Warner Music.

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Greece but also Italy, however, always crystallize concerns have increased as rumors of leaving the Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, immediately denied by the latter. Nevertheless, if the vote to be held today at the Chamber of Deputies on the budget is negative, the departure of Cavaliere seem inevitable. Meanwhile the distrust of investors facing the country's public debt is climbing.The performance of the obligation of Italian 10-year, reaching 6.73% in the morning (before falling to 6.66%), an unsustainable level over time under the weight of the debt.

At the same time, the finance ministers of the euro area gathered in Brussels last night stepped up their pressure on Athens and Rome to the two countries meet their commitments to reduce deficits. In the process, Wall Street ended on an optimistic note. This morning, Asian markets have proven unreliable and shared.

In this context, oil prices are rising. The barrel of "light sweet crude" for December delivery gained 0.36% to 96.29 dollars.

The government should give priority to savings at risk for unpopular measures. The legal age of retirement could be increased to include 62 years from 2016 or 2017, when the reform was originally scheduled for 2018.Prime Minister Francois Fillon will return to this plan tonight during the 20-hour television news on TF1.

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This falling sales spares no distributor:

-Department stores accuse thus decline sales 7% by value in September versus the same period 2010

-Chains saw sales backward 10%

-Downward turnover is 12% for independent multibrand and 14% Monoprix.

Chez Monoprix we confirms that "weather unfavorable impacted sales" but also justifies this bad news by that September 2010 compared, was excellent months "sales had then effectively climbed 7% "says we the distributor.Postponement a commercial operation christened "The nine days», held last year September but is programmed this year straddling September and October has perhaps helped falling sales recognizes we also Monoprix payday advance lender.

Worst September long …

Side independents multibrand, falling sales was certainly 12% September but segment lingerie posted according IFM the best resistance (+0.3% in value in September).

All distributors confused, sales had started marking time soon summer balances was disappointing for distributors.During the period January-August 2011, they had already declined by 1.7% in value over the same period last year.

The downward trend has clearly intensified in September, which is the worst for the industry for a long time: according to the IFM, clothing sales in France had indeed increased 2% in 2010, which was a good year, after falling 8% in 2009. But climbed 1.2% 2008 and even 8.3% in 2007.

The outlook for the month of October are not provided completely obscured: true, according to Franck Delpal, an economist at the IFM, a slight improvement in weather clothing is not excluded in October, with relapse of temperatures .

To further protect buyers and sellers of homes, parliamentarians have also adopted at the same meeting an amendment reducing the period of exclusivity clauses imposed by estate agents. Amendment UMP plans to limit the duration of these contracts to three months. This is "to provide for reasonable and appropriate to market needs," without calling into question this possibility completely, which "encourages the professional to find or sell a home quickly," says the text paydayloans. The amendment, passed in the ranks of the Socialist Party, was described as "very important" by Frederic Lefebvre. The bill already provided that such exclusive contracts can no longer be tacitly renewed, but only under an express agreement.

The text under consideration since this week also includes other measures aimed primarily at protecting tenants. Owners who do not return the deposit due to their landlord will increase the amount of 10% per month of delay. A measure that MPs hope deterrent. As the new owners now, tenants can now also challenge the falsity of the information provided by the surface owner within a certain time. A measure that would apply only to contracts signed after the passage of the law.

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