Jun 11 2011
Drought has plagued the French industry in April
The wrong number of French industrial production in April cache of surprises. Certainly, the activity of the entire industry fell 0.3% over this period, while forecasters had expected a rise of 0.4% and economists agree to observe a slowdown of the dynamics the first quarter. But the details of the figures in April can put this performance-cons.
Besides the automotive industry continues to suffer with the end of the scrapping (-2.2% on the month), the energy seems to be the main cause of industrial slowdown in April. Electricity production (-5.6%) was significantly affected by unseasonable temperatures, households cut heating, explain heart economists at BNP Paribas and Societe Generale.Same explanation for the drop of 7.5% of the refining, weighed by lower consumption of heating oil.
The average temperature in April has exceeded its normal seasonal 1.7 degrees, placing the period from seven months to April the warmest since 1950. Beware, however: "The figures are very volatile energy from one month to another and this subset weighs relatively little in the overall index of industrial production," Camille Williencourt shade, Natixis.
Other areas seem to have benefited from a recovery in investment. Equipment and electrical machinery and electronics rose 1.3% in just one month, offsetting a fall in March. Transport equipment, non-automotive jumped 2.5%."These figures are in line with the recent study by INSEE on the investment outlook, anticipating a strong rebound in business spending on equipment", says Michael Martinez, of Société Générale CIB.
Still, he recalls Camille Williencourt that "the French industrial activity is expected to slow significantly in 2011 after rising 5.1% in 2010." It is difficult to predict how the magnitude of the slowdown, according to the economist, with one side a weakened consumer spending in France, but on the other, very dynamic export to Germany.
Comments Off
