Jun 16 2010
Pensions: economists still doubt
Markets were waiting impatiently for the pension reform. Legal age to 62 years pushed, extending the contribution period, rising tax burden … how the government's announcement they will be welcomed by the markets and rating agencies? The AAA rating of France, the best, is the subject of any concerns at Bercy. The goal is to maintain "tight", even said Budget Minister Francois Baroin.
Bercy assured, reports Reuters: "The evaluation of this kind of reform can only be positive by the rating agencies." Ministry experts have calculated that the increase in 60-62 years of age of retirement accounts for 1.2 million jobs and four percentage points of GDP over the long term.Moreover, "these reforms contribute to improving the deficit by about 0.5 percentage points of GDP by 2013, according to the entourage of Christine Lagarde.
"Reform is obviously in the right direction, because the current situation is untenable," responded Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas market IP. Delaying the retirement age to 62 years is applauded Payday Advance No teletrek. "The symbol of the abolition of the 60 years is important, it is easier to move it more later if needed," said Gilles Moec, economist at Deutsche Bank. The pace of transition to 62 years, faster than originally envisaged, was also approved.
If the limit of 63 years has finally been abandoned, "the government's plan is fairly aggressive in the speed of implementation of the device, which should be effective by 2018", says Dominique Barbet."The unions were expecting perhaps a less violent transition, and the rating agencies at a faster passage. The government must allow both. "
Doubts remain. "I'm not sure whether the final reform" asks Gilles Moec. The growth assumptions Guidance Council retreats are indeed optimistic, with an unemployment rate of 4.5% in 2020 for example. "It also depends if employees choose to work longer to get a full pension, or if they prefer to leave earlier."
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