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Voted! Many viewers will be this Saturday night in tapping away on their mobiles to support one of four candidates – Louis, Stephan, Aude or Al.Hy – who will compete in the finals of The Voice télécrochet on TF1. All the more so since its launch on February 25, the show has excellent hearing, with nearly eight million viewers on average. If the suspense is over on the election's outcome, one thing is certain: the string will be the big winner of the evening. Charged € 0.65 per SMS, the votes of fans bring him close online pay day loans. According to a survey of Parisian, TF1 affects between 40,000 and 400,000 euros a Saturday night with these premium text messages, since the program began on February 25. And the final on Saturday will be the twelfth primetime télécrochet. "For every prime time The Voice, there are between 100,000 and hundreds of thousands of votes," says Krikorian Master everyday, the bailiff of Justice opens the envelopes on programs.

Viewers will vote to support one of four finalists.

Roman Lucazeau, Chargé de Mission in the Business Institute, details the mechanisms at work in the test programs.

THE FIGARO.FR. – Why submit programs of candidates for this test?

Roman Lucazeau. – Although, compared to the 2007 presidential campaign, the programs of the two main candidates are more accurate, they still gray areas and are based on slightly different economic scenarios. This makes comparison difficult. So we tried to apply the same economic variables: growth rate, inflation, unemployment rate, by 2017. We also wanted to discover what happened to the public finances if the programs were implemented with, notably, lower growth than that provided by the candidates, for example, that France has known, on average, over the past decade.  

Originally, this type of exercise is applied by the financial authorities to banks. These are subject to economic scenarios degraded to assess their strength in case of economic crisis. We use a similar method to test the ability of candidates to achieve their stated goal (zero deficit in 2016 for Nicolas Sarkozy in 2017 for Francis Holland).

But in a crisis, a candidate can always abandon its initial program

.

Absolutely. We test the strength of their roadmap, as defined during the election campaign, in a worse position than they anticipate cheap business cards. We evaluate today's promises and do not prejudge the future president of the reactions in case of contingencies.  

How does this model?

We leave the bases nominee programs (eg growth rate, the level of taxes and public spending …) and against which they built their proposals. These assumptions are public and have been developed by their campaign teams. We determine how the deficit and debt change if we change some parameters on the basis of data and public reporting, the INSEE, the Court of Auditors and of Bercy. The details of our methodology is available on our website.

How do you ensure objectivity of your approach?

We submitted the candidates' platforms to the same constraints: same inflation, even growth, even drift government spending or health insurance, etc.. The differences between results are explained by the differences between the programs themselves. Debt strategy of the two candidates based on both on growth, tax increases and budget savings. But Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande do not intend to use these levers to the same extent. Their programs do not react the same way a change of parameters.

Purpose wants to be known among city dwellers. The chain will open its first home furnishings store in the capital during the week of May 7, on the prestigious Avenue Wagram (XVII), next to Roche Bobois. This is the second City goal, brand created two years ago to lead the offense group in major cities. The first of its kind since late 2010 is installed in the mall Domus Rosny-sous-Bois (Seine-Saint-Denis). A third is scheduled to open in late June in the mall Cap 3000 in Nice.

Covering an area of ​​between 1000 m2 and 1500 m2, the City Purpose are two to five times smaller than the stores Aim at the periphery of towns. The entire range of Purpose can not be presented. As Conforama, with its sign of downtown Confo Deco Goal has chosen to focus on the organization of living, bedrooms and kitchen. "Our products, all contemporary, are adapted to small spaces. They will be at very affordable prices, as the Parisians today lack a tender other than the high end, "said Berengaria Lamboley, marketing director of Purpose.

If the appliance will not be exposed in the shop of Wagram, customers will still buy coffee machines, refrigerators and vacuum cleaners via touch screens. Or through tablets which vendors will be equipped. Purpose The City of Wagram offer innovative services, such as animations to lunch fast payday loans. "We also deliver free in the evening between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m., in central Paris and the Hauts-de-Seine," says Regis Schultz, CEO of the group.

A third sign referred

Offensive Purpose does not stop there. Regis Schultz prepares to unveil, in July, a third store format, with a dedicated teaching. Located in the "middle rurban" (catchment areas from 30,000 to 40,000), these stores will be "Aim small, with a comprehensive range of approximately 1500 m2, and are for those who do not want to buy a 40 km washing machine, "explains Bérangère Lamboley. Eight stores of this type are planned this year. These openings will bring to 219 the total number of stores owned by the brand of furniture.

Goal is now the third French player, with a market share of 10.3% in 2011, still far behind Ikea (17.8%) and Conforama (14.5%). For sale by its owner Goldman Sachs, Colony Capital and OpCapita (former Merchant Equity Partners), the group like five French investment funds. Shareholders give hope to the sign for 450, or 500 million euros, valuing the company at about six times its Ebitda (80 million euros in 2011).

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The egg hunt, chocolate bunnies or chickens will be open Sunday. Easter is indeed a special time to eat chocolate. A strong tradition since last year 12,500 tons of chocolate were sold at this time.

"We realize 20% of our turnover on this occasion. Easter with Christmas are the two highlights of the year for our business, "says Jean-Paul Burrus, president of Salpa, known for the brand Marquise de Sevigne.

The offensive of dark chocolate

The trend remains the great classics. "The most popular products are the egg, the chicken or the bells, with one exception in Alsace: the rabbit, a custom from Germany," says Jean-Paul Burrus. "After the eggs or square pyramidal and chickens conceptualized, the market returns to more traditional things," says Sylvain Quidel, head of Leonidas, whose bestsellers are topped with fried egg or rabbit. Dark chocolate is also continuing its offensive. At De Neuville, accounting for 40% of annual sales.

The chocolate does not seem to fear the consequences of the economic downturn, convinced that from twenty euros – the value of the average basket – it is a pleasure that is accessible. In addition, this year, consumption should be boosted by a calendar and a very favorable weather.

The distributor sells one to one of its retail stores (3 000 to 5 000 m2), all located in the shopping streets of major cities. "In most cases, assignment of lease rights or collection of an indemnity or compensation allows both reduce costs and generate an exceptional income," says one expert. However, competitors and suppliers are worried about a possible exit from the market in the wake of closures of outlets the most visible, vital to the store's reputation. Especially since Virgin sells very little through its website: only "a few percent of sales" line, according to management, against 11% for FNAC.

The Bordeaux Merignac store closed early 2011, the Carrousel du Louvre in late January, one in Saint-Denis in the beginning. The Virgin of Metz should lower the curtain end of June and the date of closing of that of Toulouse was not communicated to employees. The brand sold at Fnac location of 3000 m2 that it had reserved in the future shopping center Beaugrenelle. Last year, his competitor had already convinced Lagardère Services to undertake the small stores in stations and airports, since renamed Fnac. The future of the flagship Champs-Elysees is uncertain. Virgin charge of real estate firms to find a buyer for his lease.

A new store model

Despite this dramatic reduction in wing, Jean-Louis Raynard, CEO of Virgin Stores, assures to look for ways "to restart the sales payday loan lenders." In 2011, sales were "slightly" decreased to about 300 million euros, while the goal of returning to profitability, fixed by its shareholder, the fund Butler Capital, has not been reached. The sign is positioned on "high-growth segments, such as helmets, but their contribution is still insufficient," admitted the manager, who also spoke of "a new store model, smaller, more segmented with an offer and a greater role for digital. " Virgin had to test its new store format before summer. Since the date of presentation of this "new strategy" has been postponed twice. It is now scheduled for early May "an establishment in the first site at the end of the year." In the meantime, Virgin will open at the mall from the Gare Saint-Lazare, probably in the coming days. It will not surprise the customer by its small size (965 m2), because the offer has not been reviewed

.

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We knew the fabric of SMEs insufficient in France. Comparisons with the German model, its "large SMEs' innovative and exporting family, were hardly flattering. But the new method adopted by INSEE to classify firms by size is even better in this light French weakness. The definition of the company formalized the end of 2008 no longer regarded as subsidiary companies of its own: it links them to the group they belong. In a study published on Tuesday, INSEE describes the corporate landscape of hexagonal resulting from this change. Conclusion: "The production base is much more concentrated than it seemed."

The breakdown by company size – large companies, medium-sized companies (ETI), SMEs and microenterprises – is turned upside down. In 2009, France had 2.7 million and entities (excluding agriculture and financial sector). Under the old way of counting, only a hundred of them exceeded the threshold of 5,000 employees that large companies. With the new definition and the inclusion of the concept of group, they spend a little over 200.

So, they employ 28% of employees, which is double what was the scope of large enterprises in the previous definition fast payday loan. They carry 33% of the value added (or 17% of GDP, also double the valuation date chosen) and account for half of exports. Similarly, with this new definition, the share of large enterprises in research and development expenses increased from less than 40% to 60%.

SMEs overrated

"Symmetrically, the weight of the other three categories of firms is less important," said INSEE. It is SMEs whose share "decreases the most." For nearly half of these companies with 10 to 249 employees are subsidiaries of a group or a larger enterprise.

Another lesson of the study, the weight of each sector is modified for the benefit of the industry, as the subsidiaries making or supporting business functions, previously classified in the service sector, are reinstated. The industrial workforce is located in "reinflated" by more than 2 points, representing 27.5% of total employees.

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Projects are multiplying in the ultra-low-cost, became a major issue for the automobile. For proof, German Volkswagen, which earns huge sums yet with its premium brand Audi, does not intend to abandon this segment to rival Renault-Nissan. "The group has a portfolio of cars down to the Up! We lead a discussion to develop a vehicle that would be located below. It would not be proposed under the Volkswagen brand, but would a new name, "confirmed Thursday Martin Winterkorn, CEO of Volkswagen, during a press conference in Paris. The goal is to get off rates lie between EUR 5000 and EUR 7000 to meet demand in some markets. "In India and China, there is undoubtedly a potential market for cars located below the Up!" Says the boss of VW. For now, the cheapest car sold by VW Polo in India is at about 7000 euros, which is expensive for local consumers. The German previously banked on its partnership with Japan's Suzuki, leader of the Indian market – which it owns 20% – to develop an appropriate offer, but relations between the two groups became execrable.

For its part, Nissan, Renault's ally, announced Tuesday it would rise again from 2014 Datsun brand, abandoned in the 1980s. With this new brand, whose prices will be "affordable" (around 500,000 yen, euro 4600, according to Japanese press), the Japanese initially target India, Russia and Indonesia.

"Today, our entry into the Indian market, it is the Micra", sold around 6,000 euros, "or, below that price, it remains more than 40% of the market. It is necessary that we can offer something to those customers "who can not spend more, recently emphasized Gilles Normand, Nissan's vice president, referring to the creation of a true" product line " instant credit report.

For its part, Renault launched the project of a car ultra-low-cost, which aims to compete with the cheapest models in the Indian market, as the Tata Nano to 2,500 euros. Internally, we talk a car from 3500 euros, to be launched by 2016.

Logan too expensive

Renault certainly has its Logan platform, sold under the brand low-cost Dacia in Europe. She pulls the international growth, particularly in Brazil and Russia, thanks to models like the small Sandero or 4 × 4 Duster (which are not considered in these markets as low-cost). But "for countries like India," this platform is "too expensive", "therefore, we will look for cheaper platforms", called ultra-low-cost, explained last month, Carlos Ghosn, the Renault boss Nissan. This new platform will also serve to Africa or South America.

While sales are declining in Europe, the ultra-low-cost has become a vital gateway to the volume in some markets up sharply. The Indian market, which reached 2 million cars last year, could double or even triple in the coming years, according to Renault-Nissan

Indonesia (900,000 sales last year), where Nissan will more than double its production capacity to increase it to 250,000 cars per year by 2014, also represents a market full of promise.

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After Greece, out of bankruptcy risk through the release of a second bailout of 130 billion euros, it was Spain who finds himself in the crosshairs of the Eurogroup, meeting on Monday evening in Brussels. The Spanish finance minister will have to explain on the skids deficits Spanish before his peers, the European Commission and the ECB President.

The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, had a surprise, on March 2, alongside the European Council, stating that Spain would build his 2012 budget with a deficit target of 5.8% of GDP, while that agreed with the EU was 4.4%, to reach 3% of GDP deficit in 2013.

The market reaction was not long in coming. Following this, the cost of borrowing from Spain to 10 years jumped to nearly 5% more than for the first time in months, that of Italy. Guardian of the future "fiscal pact", the European Commission ordered a "serious blunder", brandished the threat of financial sanctions and sent experts to Madrid to assess the fiscal situation. Last year, the Spanish public deficit soared more than expected to reach 8.51% of GDP in late 2011.

Threat of sanctions

"There is no questioning of objectives," says the Spanish Minister of Economy, Luis De Guindos, in an interview Sunday on ABC newspaper. "Spain is a loyal member of the EU who feels bound by the European fiscal rules," he says.

Engaged in a very severe austerity measures, faces a general strike in late March because of its reform of the labor market, Spain is weighed down by losses of its regions, which have slipped to 2.9% of GDP against only 1.3% under-the Madrid region meets its objectives, which weighs heavily on central government accounts.

Barely out of the Greek crisis, "the euro area can not afford a new speculative attack," recalls one in Brussels. The Commission will ask the government to submit a plan "credible" to bring deficits to 3% in 2013, implying a say in Brussels on the draft budget 2012 Spanish.

Monday night, finance ministers from the euro area will give the green light to launch the second program of aid to Greece. Of 130 billion euros, the IMF should be involved up to 18 billion, said Christine Lagarde.

Even the Germans say they are reassured about the situation in Greece. "I am confident that the measures taken hard by the Greek government will put the country on the road to recovery," said German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, unwilling to speculate on a third plan to help … To parry , the European Central Bank will continue its buybacks of bonds on the secondary market, ensures Coeuré Benedict, a member of the Executive Board of the ECB to Japanese newspaper Nikkei.

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The liquidation of the company SeaFrance Channel whets the appetites of competing operators. The subsidiary of SNCF had indeed a great market share and operating three of the ten vessels that supplied the Calais-Dover.

Now provides a new ferry crossing. Friday, the "Norman Spirit", which can carry 710 cars and 1,100 passengers, has completed its first run between Calais and Dover. It is chartered by the consortium Louis-Dreyfus Armateurs (LDA)-DFDS. The financing package for the joint venture "is not yet completed and may change," said LDA.

Initially, the "Norman Spirit" had strengthened the Dunkerque-Dover DFDS, opened in 2004. He now will leave Calais, where the crossing is the shortest – a port that is far refused to DFDS and LDA. The first company operates trains north (Dunkirk, Amsterdam). The second is present in the south, with Le Havre and Dieppe, and had tried unsuccessfully to revive the line Boulogne-sur-Mer, Dover, 2009.

There would be room for everyone

Leader on the Calais-Dover, P & O operates seven vessels, sixty trips daily, and has recently invested 360 million euros in two superferries, which have been commissioned. The first, the "Spirit of Britain", was launched over a year ago, the second in early February no fax pay day loan. Each ferry can carry 1,059 cars or 180 trucks and 200 cars.

Crisis requires SeaFrance, P & O had postponed the shutdown of ferries replaced by these vessels. The company admits to being "in an observation period with respect to competition," while observing that studies of the expansion of the port of Calais "forecast an increase of traffic in the coming years." So there would be room for everyone.

For its part, Eurotunnel, the operator of the Channel Tunnel, plays spoilsport in the sea. The company has announced its interest in obtaining the three SeaFrance ferries. Eurotunnel would lease a second time to the workers' cooperative (scop) that plan to launch the elders of the CFDT-sea SeaFrance. "We are not in the context of a coup, says Fabienne Lissak, director of communications. The elders of SeaFrance have maritime skills: we absolutely need them, our ferry business from scratch. "

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Confusion will be enough oil to burn in minutes. Brent crude rose from $ 118 to $ 120 Wednesday at 13:30, while news agencies, citing the Iranian television channel Press TV evoked an immediate suspension of Iranian oil sales in six European countries including France, Greece, the Italy and Spain.

Finally, according to Al-Alam, Tehran has only "warned" that could disrupt its sales in retaliation for the embargo imposed on 23 January by the European Union (EU). But it will not do "for now and for humanitarian reasons because of the cold," said Al-Alam. Six European ambassadors were received by the Director for Western Europe of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hassan Tajik them said his country had found "other buyers". At 14:30, a barrel of Brent crude in London fell back side around 118.40 dollars. By climbing a few moments to 120 dollars a barrel returned to a level reached last summer, also close off the hook early 2011 highs at the beginning of the Libyan war.

Embargo unprecedented EU

The foreign ministers of the European Union adopted on January 23 a series of new economic sanctions against Iran, suspected of developing nuclear weapons program. An embargo "progressive" on imports of Iranian oil has been decided. The bill provides that existing contracts can be implemented until July 1. A delay obtained at the request of the European countries most dependent on Iranian crude, beginning with Greece, which buys 30% of its oil to the regime of Mullah, followed by Italy (13%) and Spain (12% ). Twenty-Seven took weeks to agree on the sanction regime. France for its part does not buy that about 3% of its black gold to Iran.

The progressive nature of the embargo would allow European countries to compensate for expected losses by supplies provided mainly by Saudi Arabia pledged to pump more crude. While Tehran, contrary to the statements of its leaders, is not guaranteed to sell its Asian customers that the oil would be shunned by Europe, the Islamic regime wants to use short-term increases in financial income generated by each spike courses. And perhaps divisions among its customers more or less vulnerable.

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