Mar 14 2012
Fitch upgrades Greek, but the fault is not removed
Fitch upgrades Greece. After the swap of debt that was a huge success – over 80% participation – there is more good news for the country. "This exchange and losses imposed on creditors have raised the profile of debt service and reduces the risk of a repeat of its short-term repayment difficulties," said Fitch in a statement. The rating agency notes that the country-B, no longer considers Greece in default … for now. Three days ago, its American competitor, Moody's, had preferred to maintain the rating of Greece to C, the lowest in his scale. For its part, Standard & Poor's is expected to meet the CCC.
Fitch remains cautious nonetheless. She stressed that the challenges the country faces are important. The next decision that the agency will take vis-à-vis the Greek debt will be dictated by the analysis that she will do "performance of Greece in terms of the parameters set by the new EU-IMF and the ability and willingness of the sovereign State to honor its obligations related to restructured debt. '"A broad program success through maintaining significant budgetary surpluses, structural reforms and a concerted demonstrable economic recovery would put pressure bullish on the notes, "the agency says.
Troika, comprising representatives of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF, concurs. She said Greece will have to make further budgetary adjustment efforts in the next two years. The report reached this conclusion based on the primary surplus target (that is to say outside debt service) Greek public finances which should reach 4.5% in 2014. Given this goal will require "an adjustment path in the short term that implies a primary deficit of 1% in 2012, followed by an adjustment of 2.75% of GDP in 2013 and then in 2014".
According to the report, "there are significant risks that the decline of the debt is interrupted or even a reversal occurs as a result of economic shocks." In a more pessimistic scenario presented in the report, the country's debt could exceed 145% of GDP in 2020. In addition, a high degree of uncertainty and the debt burden makes "the uncertain outlook for Greece to be able to return to the markets at the end of the program" help, either in 2015, the report notes.
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