Experts cabinet Alixpartner highlight the "resilience" rather remarkable aerospace facing a crisis which has "devastated most industries, in the words of Eric Bernardini, Associate Director. After three years of strong growth (+15 to +17%), the slowdown has been severe but the activity remained positive with an increase of 2% in the world. This, in an environment where credit was becoming scarce and expensive.

This resilience reflects the fact that the aviation industry is a long cycle that "smooth" dips and rebounds of activity.When the crisis broke out, the order books are well filled – they are between 6 and 7 years of work with Airbus and Boeing, for example – the U.S. defense budget remains high at over 600 billion dollars and companies will react quickly launching plans for reorganization to optimize their cost base. But the overall increase in activity concealed differences: the regional airline and business aviation have suffered more from the crisis in commercial aviation (aircraft above 110 seats).

What about 2010?

"Do not expect to find pre-crisis levels," warns Eric Bernardini. The first quarter of the year was marked by a 9% drop in shipments compared to the same period of 2009 with 261 aircraft confondues.Cela all categories, while new orders taken are not strong after the fall of 70% of last year.

Several negative factors do not advocate a resumption free. First, the defense budget at best stagnant in the West with a likely decline in the U.S. and cuts already adopted in France, Germany and Great Britain. This marks a break with the period 1999-2009. In ten years, this budget has increased by 167% in the USA, 104% in France, but 181% in Saudi Arabia, Russia 272% and 294% in China. "But in real terms, the EU budget has stagnated, it has instead increased in the rest of the world," the study said.

Then, weak clients in commercial aviation. "With 0.5% margin forecast by 2010, the airline business model is not profitable in the long term," said Thierry Down, Alixpartner partner in the firm.Majors are also increasingly threatened by the rise of new players from the Asia-Pacific region and Middle East policies that lead to acquisitions of new equipment and aggressive pricing as well as the installation in the landscape of low cost.

And in the longer term?

The aviation industry is expected, according Alixpartner remain a growth industry. Thanks to the strength of emerging markets in Asia Pacific and Middle East in the years to come. The study of new aircraft deliveries projected to increase 15% per year by 2028, three times faster than air traffic.

The contract will be subject to strong pressure on prices with the arrival of new competitors in particular on the lucrative segment of the short and medium haul routes.The C-Series from Canada's Bombardier and Mitsubishi MRJ Japanese between 2013 and 2015 and the C-919 Chinese Comac to 2017 (and perhaps also a future large-derived Embraer E-190) will break the duopoly of Airbus Boeing and their A 320 and B 737. The arrival of his new players posed with even more accuité the issue of repowering existing Airbus and Boeing or the launch of new devices.

The pressure on prices will be high on the international defense market, U.S. groups seek growth from outside their borders. And taking probably the way of acquisitions.

What lessons did from the crisis?

Aerospace has been facing the worst crisis of his violent history at a time when she changed her business model.Boeing led the way, followed by Airbus, opting for the outsourcing of whole aircraft to major partners who share the financial risk and industry (risk-sharing partners). The model is not fixed so far, but already he designed a new deal between manufacturers and suppliers of rank 1. "It is evolving towards a model where not only the charges and development will be shared but also the earnings. Some vendors provide penalties for delay if the programs of manufacturers are backlogged. This can be a risky gamble for the supplier but overall, the balance of power balances gradually ", explains Thierry down.

Result: 8.6% in 2009, the profitability of major equipment has become for the first time higher than that of manufacturers that spring to 6.2%.Overall, manufacturers have been penalized by delays in recovery of their new programs (B 787, A 380 and A 400M), which has cost them billions of euros and has weighed on their accounts. Mais ces chiffres globaux cachent à nouveau de grandes disparités et mettent en lumière la faiblesse des acteurs européens par rapports aux géants américains. "In our study, few major European suppliers are well placed. the winners are those who realize a significant part of their business in the United States as the British Cobham, "said Eric Bernardini. The French equipment already handicapped by a structure of costs in euros on a market where the reference currency is the dollar, are particularly poorly placed with margin levels that are almost the double.

It is therefore urgent to organize and optimize its cost structure.Some have understood like a Zodiac, which has returned to acquisitions and has balanced its business conducted in dollars and one conducted in euro. French SMEs are particularly vulnerable because they are too small and no financial base. "Some have understood that they must join forces and others not," note the experts at AlixPartners. In Aerostructures (elements that when assembled form the fuselage of the plane) there is urgency with four players in France (15 in Europe) against the giant American Spirit and subsidiaries of major Japanese companies Mitsubishi and Kawasaki.

Mergers and acquisitions will they return?

Yes, says the study. Especially since they have not stopped but simply slowed during the crisis operations from 238 to 156 between 2008 and 2009. In the first quarter of 2010, we are 51.The Americans who were most active on this front between 2005 and 2009 with 484 operations should continue to play outposts. If Europeans have been rather discreet in number of transactions in the period with the notable exception of Thales, they have been very active if we take the size criteria for acquisitions. Leader in this category, Italy's Finmeccanica. But in none of the categories cited by the study is EADS, the European giant who nevertheless want to ensure complete acquisitions in order to realign its business in the defense and security.

The Aerostructures segment very crumbled, electrical systems and maintenance and repair should experience the largest wave of consolidation, particularly in Europe. In total, the five main players in these three activities controlled only 40%, 40% and 27% market share.

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"There was no cancellation in the legal sense. These are the tenders that have been canceled. Today, nobody can say 'I lost the case, because no one had been chosen "slice Lars Bernard, vice president of Synhorcat, a leading professional trade."So there is no impact because in this profession, we do not prepare anything in advance. A caterer is not Picard, irritated the union representative.

Same story on the side of the Elysee usual caterers. "We were still at the stage of tendering. We filed our application and we expect the answer. We have therefore incurred no expenses, "said Francois Raynier, owner of upscale catering Raynier Marchetti, who denies the passage strengthened its team of 150 people in anticipation of the Garden Party. "150 is our average size," says he.

"From homemade

The prefecture also announced that the cancellations last minute should incur any costs because the buffets are mostly prepared in-house. "We use the kitchen of the prefecture," says one in Rennes.In the Sarthe, everything is "homemade" due to "credit limit". The few jurisdictions involving caterers explain – as is the case in Mayenne – they were still "at the stage estimates.

In the Alpes-Maritimes, the services of the prefecture are in this case state spending "very minimal" to "a few hundred euros": "We're pooling with the city of Nice and the General Council of Alpes-Maritimes limit spending from outside caterers, "says a spokeswoman.

Flexibility

Even if there had been a contract between two parties, there is no fixed schedule for repayment in the profession, making negotiations on a case by case basis between the provider and client Guaranteed payday loans. "It's the law of business but we always find common ground," says Bernard Bras.In case of cancellation, the situation remains manageable, "he assures," It is a profession without visibility. Sometimes some customers confirm the case only 3-4 days before the big day We are accustomed to this kind of situation. "

At the forefront of the controversy, the food critics temper this speech. According to them, traders are well advised not to claim compensation for the expected win lucrative contracts in the future. "It's flattering to prepare the buffet or the Elysee Matignon is a commercial asset, an honor, a good card," says Claude Lebey, editor and author of restaurant guides.

Rebound

The representative of Synhorcat still regrets the loss of activity represented by these cancellations. "We are talking thousands of hours of work.For the Elysee, the decision could also have been taken earlier this year when the budget is fixed ….

For the future, the profession remains optimistic. The idea of a snowball effect of cancellations is scanned. "On the corporate side, which represent nearly 80% of our business, we see a rather significant recovery from last year," says Lars Bernard. "These are not exceptional receptions for when the box is bad, do not 'do too much peter cap'. But when there is a quick turnaround, we must celebrate. This is happening today. " The other big market traders – that of individuals – is also on the mend: "over time, we notice that people continue to celebrate events," notes vice president of Synhorcat. The public sector, the smallest of openings, should be the one to be hit hard.

"End 2008-2009, business has plummeted because of last minute cancellations of contracts. In the worst of the crisis, some professionals have lost 40% activity, ensures Lars Bernard. 2010 is therefore a year of healing. Regarding cancellations, we are entitled to think that this will not be like that all year. "

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This reflects "an upward revision to imports and a downward revision to consumer spending," says the Department of Commerce. A phenomenon only partly offset by "an upward revision of exports and changes in business inventories."

"It's disappointing," Judge Inna Mufteeva, economist at Natixis U.S.."Consumer spending was revised down from 3.5% to 3% payday loan online. Shortly reassuring, while half of this increase can be attributed to the plan of Barack Obama, according to Natixis. The fact that fiscal stimulus should deflate during the second half of the year.

Also somewhat reassuring, the growth was largely supported (1.9 to 2.7%) by a motor very tentative: the recovery of businesses. Explanation: During the crisis, American companies have used their stocks. Until no longer have anything in their warehouses. In recent months, they have therefore produced and placed an order to replenish their stocks, thereby amplifying the rebound in growth. Good news is that the investment factor for structural growth, jumped 11% in the first quarter of 2010.

Bercy assured, reports Reuters: "The evaluation of this kind of reform can only be positive by the rating agencies." Ministry experts have calculated that the increase in 60-62 years of age of retirement accounts for 1.2 million jobs and four percentage points of GDP over the long term.Moreover, "these reforms contribute to improving the deficit by about 0.5 percentage points of GDP by 2013, according to the entourage of Christine Lagarde.

"Reform is obviously in the right direction, because the current situation is untenable," responded Dominique Barbet, economist at BNP Paribas market IP. Delaying the retirement age to 62 years is applauded Payday Advance No teletrek. "The symbol of the abolition of the 60 years is important, it is easier to move it more later if needed," said Gilles Moec, economist at Deutsche Bank. The pace of transition to 62 years, faster than originally envisaged, was also approved.

If the limit of 63 years has finally been abandoned, "the government's plan is fairly aggressive in the speed of implementation of the device, which should be effective by 2018", says Dominique Barbet."The unions were expecting perhaps a less violent transition, and the rating agencies at a faster passage. The government must allow both. "

Doubts remain. "I'm not sure whether the final reform" asks Gilles Moec. The growth assumptions Guidance Council retreats are indeed optimistic, with an unemployment rate of 4.5% in 2020 for example. "It also depends if employees choose to work longer to get a full pension, or if they prefer to leave earlier."

This remarkable evolution follows the statement released Wednesday by Valeo, in which the group calls itself "confident" in achieving its goal of doubling its operating margin compared to 2009, notified on 24 February. The group is therefore an operating margin of almost 4% of its turnover in 2009 against 1.8% and 2.7% in 2008.Just in the first half, Valeo anticipates an operating margin approaching 6%, the highest rate on a semester during the last eight years.

Nomura to buy rest

The supplier table, moreover, still for the first half of 2010, on a turnover of around 4.7 billion euros, an increase of about 35% compared to the first half of 2009. Consensus Thomson Reuters, meanwhile, put on a turnover of 8.2 billion euros for the group in 2010 with an operating profit of 301 million, which would result in a margin of 3.67%.

This perspective reinforces the analysts at Nomura, in their recommendation to purchase the title. They said the current valuation of Valeo offers significant upside potential and thus provides a good buying opportunity. Nomura sets the price target to 35 euros.

Around 8:15 am, the CAC 40 index futures to predict an opening in April 2010 were down 0.38% to 4014 points.

The Greek situtation continues to worry, with its market "disconnected from reality", according to analysts. Wednesday noon, the Greek rate climbed to 7.176%.

The euro declines further against the dollar Thursday in favor of safer currencies considered as the yen. Around 8 am, the euro stood at 1.3332 dollars against 1.3339 dollars on Wednesday in 23 hours.

The ECB decision this afternoon

In France, the day will begin with the publication by the customs authorities of foreign trade value in February (at 8:45).The Department of Budget, at the same time, unveil the monthly statement of the State budget through February. Regarding the euro area, 11 hours, investors will pay particular attention to the retail trade, still for the month of February.

But the decision of the ECB (European Central Bank) on interest rates from the European Union will be scrutinized even more closely. If the status quo is widely expected, any change of tone in the speech of Jean-Claude Trichet could be perceived as a sign of a future monetary tightening.

In the U.S., the most watched weekly claims for unemployment benefits, at 14:30, will be published.Wednesday evening, Ben Bernanke, the Fed chief, said the United States are not "derived from business" and that the country will have to make sacrifices "inevitable" to resume a stronger growth.

Lagard?re pressure

On the alliance Renault-Nissan and Daimler, Dieter Zetsche, CEO of Daimler, has welcomed the agreement. With their partnership, both groups rely on synergies and economies of scale to 2 billion euros each. They also intend to expand their cooperation. "It's not good at the right time, and for good reasons," he said Wednesday at a news conference.

Furthermore, tensions are growing between Lagard?re and Wyser-Pratte. The activist investor has scored two resolutions to the General Meeting of April 27.Note that since March 25, when the Franco-American investor said it held 0.53% of the media group, Lagardere's share rose almost 10%.

According to Les Echos, Airbus, EADS subsidiary, has 60 orders since the beginning of the year. Airbus has delivered 122 planes during the period for airlines including three A380s.

Maurel and Prom of 2009 results published in the red but was confident for 2010. The oil company proposed a dividend of EUR 0.10 (cons 0.35 for 2008).

INSEE opened the dance of the ads shortly before the opening with the announcement of a debt to France of 77.6% of GDP, against 67.5% of GDP in 2008. The deficit was up 1.8 point to 7.5% of GDP in 2009, a figure slightly less bad than expected (7.9% expected). The deficit increased a total of 80.1 billion, reflecting a decrease of 4.3% of revenue and an increase of 3.8% of spending, Insee said.Note also the producer prices rose 0.1% in France in February after rising 0.6% in January.

Moreover, the annual inflation rate of the euro area amounted to 1.5% in March 2010, according to a flash estimate issued today by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Union. This figure covers 16 countries using the euro represents the largest increase since December 2008. It was 0.9% in February. As for unemployment, it has reached 10% in February against 9.9% the previous month, which is the highest level since August 1998.

An abundant macroeconomic news

Across the Atlantic, the eyes will be on the ADP figures of employment in the private sector in March, which fall at 14.15 (this is the employment figures to be released Friday which are expected by most investors).In February, U.S. employment was revealed better than expected. The unemployment rate was 9.7%.

Half an hour later, the economy of the Chicago area over the same month that will be scrutinized by investors. Then, 16 hours, industrial orders in February will register on the radar screens of traders. Finally, at 16:30, the weekly inventory of crude to the United States will be made public.

Other noteworthy events this Wednesday for the first time a foreign minister, namely the French Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde, participates in the German Council of Ministers, devoted in particular to a stabilization fund for banks (9:30).She then held a press conference with his German counterpart Wolfgang Sch?uble at noon.

Societe Generale court

The French bank Societe Generale (+0.32% at 46.86 euros) must respond to a complaint filed in Court of New York by pension funds and individual investors who accuse him of having lost the money.

Axa remains in the green (0.27%, to 16.52 euros), while S & P downgraded its rating on the stock.

Regarding EADS (+1.11% at 15.05 euros) and the American tanker, Barack Obama, during a press conference in Washington with Nicolas Sarkozy, said he wanted to "avoid protectionism. He promised a selection of "free and fair" contract for 35 billion euros.

It Schneider Electric continues to lead the CAC 40, with an increase of 2.21%, to 87.32 euros.Vinci rises by 0.42%, to 43.99 euros, still boosted by his victory over the tender to 7 billion euros for the TGV south-western France.

Later publications, the leading Internet ad Adenclassifieds saw its net profit fall by almost 88% last year. But signs of recovery appear since the end of 2009.

On Wednesday, Orpea, a leading French farmers institutions comprehensive care for dependents, issued a rebound in net income of 26.1%, to 61 million. The title climbed 0.72% to 30.72 euros.

Neopost back him, from 3.74% to 58.95 euros. The group saw its 2009 net profit decline of 5.7% to 147.9 million euros.

Shortly before the opening of markets across the Atlantic, the index futures Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 slid 0.11% respectively at 1 164.50 points and 0.05% to 1 935.50 points.

In the United States, the session will be punctuated by the publication of a series of indicators. Investors will first knowledge of the price index for consumption for the month of February.Analysts on average expect a price increase of 0.1% over one month and 2.3% over one year. The day will then continue with the announcement of weekly unemployment registration and publication of the balance of current accounts for the last three months of 2009. Experts expect a deficit just under 120 billion dollars. Follow the index of the Central Bank of Philadelphia for the month of March and the composite index of leading indicators for February.

On the currency markets, the euro back down to $ 1.37 after Germany had banged his fist on the table against Greece and the assumption of an IMF assistance had resurfaced.The barrel of oil is still firm, the new deadline of May of Brent trading at 81.48 dollars on the London market an ounce of gold.

Nike back to growth

On the side of values, the number one sports equipment, Nike announced after the close on Wall Street a return to growth in sales and profits. In the third quarter of its fiscal year ended in late February), Nike has made a net profit of 496 million dollars against 244 million a year earlier on the same period. A few months before the World Cup 2010, its backlog has already greatly improved and the group expects a continuation of this trend.

A follow also the title of the aircraft manufacturer Boeing. China has ordered its airlines to conduct checks of their Boeing 737 after a similar decision of U.S. authorities.The decision of the Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC), which covers 400 aircraft, follows concerns about possible security problems related to a component in the tail of the aircraft.

The results of FedEx for the third quarter are expected on Thursday. The numbers of specialist couriers are always observed under the microscope by investors. Indeed, they generally face forward barometer of U.S. business activity.

The consensus, the status quo on the rate seems to be accepted, but the market awaits clarification on possible exit strategy crisis Fed.This meeting will be the anchor of Tuesday's session, very lean corporate earnings, but punctuated by economic indicators.

Thus, France will release at 8:45 the inflation figures for the month of February and the index of prices in supermarkets also in February, to 12 hours.

In Germany, the market will follow the German ZEW index of investor confidence.

Finally, the EU finance ministers will meet on Tuesday, including the agenda monitoring the formal notice to Greece in February about the improvement in public finances.

In the struggle between the United States and China on the currency market, members of Congress sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Commerce Secretary Gary Locke requested that the yuan is on the list of currencies handled in the annual report issued by the Obama administration next month.

Values follow

Steria: services company in computer engineering was published on Monday a net profit group share of fiscal 2009 from 48.2 million down 6.6% compared to the result of last year.Its annual turnover fell by 3.1% at constant scope and exchange, to $ 1.630 billion, but this decrease was slightly lower than expected (-3.5%). The group expects a first semester "difficult".

NextRadio TV: The media group NextRadioTV presented Monday after-hours trade, a net deficit of 6 million euros in 2009 when analysts expected a loss of 2.7 million. The group has however decided to pay its shareholders a first dividend in its history which amounts to 0.2 euro per share for the year 2009.

Renault and Daimler have begun talks on a mutual stake in the framework of a long-term cooperation, the Financial Times.Furthermore, Renault sales rose 30% in February to 109,663 units.

PSA-Peugeot: The automaker recorded in February, up from 18.4% to 149,128 vehicles, according to figures published by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA).

Assystem: In a statement, the group specializes in the field of engineering and innovation consulting published under the fiscal 2009 net income group share a deficit of 800,000 euros against a profit of 25.8 million euros in 2008. Its annual turnover has decreased by 8.8% to 613.1 million euros. The operating margin from 6.7% in 2008 to 3.6% in 2008. As for the dividend has been halved, to $ 0.25 respectively euros per share.

The year 2009 was marked by a sharp fall in world trade has declined by 13% by volume. In this context, French exports fell by 17% and imports by 18% in value, is the Secretary of State for Foreign Trade. "However, from the second quarter, with the gradual recovery of international trade, the French foreign trade contributed positively to the French growth, it is said in the statement creditreport