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While the debate between plans and rigor stimulus facilitated the markets in recent weeks, the attention of analysts and investors will again be focused on the financial performance of companies from Monday. Indeed, the U.S. giant Alcoa aluminum ball will open the second quarter of publications in the U.S., after market.

If analysts have recently lowered their forecasts for the group in front of the lower aluminum prices, Alcoa will announce earnings for the second quarter, against a loss last year. The title Alcoa ended Friday at 10.94 dollars, up 2.05%. The volley of U.S. results will continue this week with the technology companies Google, Advanced Micro Devices or Intel, and banks JPMorgan and Bank of America. Citigroup and General Electric will unveil their findings Friday.

Renewed investor confidence

Pending these publications, it is time for optimism in the U.S.. The Dow Jones closed up about 0.57% Friday at 10,197.19 points while the Nasdaq advanced 0.97% to 2196.45 points. Among the good news that restored investor confidence late last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global growth for 2010 at 4.6% against 4.2% estimated in April.

Analysts polled by Reuters predict the results of the groups listed on the S & P 500 will emerge up 27% for the second quarter, more than the 22% increase posted during the first three months of the year. "We are seeing one of the occasions of the highest profits in history," said David S.Bianco, chief strategist for the United States at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, interviewed by The New York Times. According to him, he must go back to the Great Depression of the 30s to see such a rebound.

Markets should also respond well to the results to be published in Europe, where the decline of the euro against the dollar is favorable to businesses. "Like the U.S., figures released by the European companies will be rather positive," said Vincent Treulet, head of investment strategy at BNP Paribas AM. "The second quarter was dynamic on both sides of the Atlantic, compared to the second quarter of 2009." Figures released this week will quantify this improved profitability. And reassure the markets, accordingly.

The speeches of leaders scrutinized

In this context, however, uncertainty haunts the minds of economists. The expected rebound in profits he heralding an improvement on the employment front, at a time when companies continue to cut costs to improve their productivity? "We can expect that the outlook announced by the companies are more optimistic that the sentiments expressed by employees and households," said David S. Bianco.

Beyond the quantitative assessments of companies, are the speeches of leaders who will focus the attention of investors and dictate the trend on stock markets. And this, in the U.S. and Europe. Some experts expect however that these comments remain rather vague. Companies may place more emphasis on the lack of visibility."It could indeed disappoint the markets in the medium to long term," according to Vincent Treulet.

Analysts too optimistic?

Especially as the expert anticipates a slowdown in growth for the second half of 2010. In addition, many operators believe that analysts, encouraged by the good figures for the first quarter of 2010, advance estimates too high for 2011. "The consensus view that corporate profits would exceed the peak reached in 2007, which seems overly optimistic," says the strategist at BNP Paribas AM.

Businesses now report what scenario they anticipate. In France, the dance of publications of the second quarter and first half will open July 22, with STMicroelectronics. Some companies, however, reveal their sales figures this week, including L'Oreal on Monday after the close of trading Thursday and Carrefour.

This is the most reassuring news announced by the U.S. authorities for more than two months. According to Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen American to oversee cleanup operations in the Gulf of Mexico, BP should be able to contain 100% the gap in the well from which oil flows to by Monday. A new funnel, bigger than previous ones, is currently installed by the British oil.

This funnel, called "Top Hat Number 10", should recover up to 80,000 barrels of oil per day (12.7 million liters), against 25,000 now. The authorities are optimistic that based on their assessments, the well lost more than 60,000 barrels per day. The previous dome will be first removed. A large quantity of oil escape so well for 48 hours.But once the new funnel posed, the results will be immediate, promises Thad Allen.

Since April 20, the day of the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon platform off the coast of Louisiana, BP has increased its attempts to clogging, all unsuccessful.

No stop before August

BP was more cautious in its forecasts. Bob Dudley, responsible for managing the disaster, spoke of another scenario where difficulties in installing the new funnel could delay the time from Monday to Thursday.

But authorities are confident: "We have the climate we need," said Thad Allen. The admiral, however, required to calm the enthusiasm that followed the announcement. "I used the word 'contain' and not 'stop'," he commented. According to him, the well would not be closed as well as two-pass will not be completed.These wells, dug deep to inject cement and mud, should not be installed until mid-August. Once the leak stopped, the extensive cleaning and restoration of the ratings will continue.

Anadarko does not pay

On this last point, BP was again struck Friday denied Anadarko Petroleum. The company, which owns 25% of wells responsible for the spill, said she would not pay the $ 272 million that BP is asking her to cover their share of cleanup costs, according to U.S. law known pollution.

On June 18, the tension was raised a notch between the two partners lorsqu'Anadarko stated that the explosion of April 20 on the platform Deepwater Horizon, "was preventable and was a direct result of decisions and actions BP unthinking.

In another e-mail sent Friday, a spokesman for Anadarko, John Christiansen, however, felt that his group remained "committed to working in good faith with BP to reach a satisfactory resolution."

BP is now awaiting the response of Mitsui, which owns 10% of the wells. The British oil giant is claiming $ 112 million for cleanup costs. The company has not yet made its position.

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In an update of its economic growth forecasts published in Hong Kong Thursday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to show more optimism for global economies, with the exception of France and Great Britain. The IMF has lowered its estimate of 0.1 growth in 2010 for both countries relative to expectations in April, until now +1.4% for France and 1.2% for Great Britain. Regarding the euro area, the IMF maintains its forecast for growth of 1%. Conversely, it has raised its projection for global growth in 2010 to 4.6% against 4.2% estimated in April.

The IMF draws attention to the financial sector, less and less stable, due to the rising public debt in many countries. It focuses on the risks as well, which "have greatly increased" since April.The international institution recognizes that "progress toward global financial stability have recently suffered a setback. The risks on the public debt in some part of the eurozone have materialized and extended the financial sector in the region, threatening to spread to other regions and generate a downward spiral again winning the economy. "

Reaction of central banks

In this context, the IMF estimated that some central banks may have to ease these tensions further relaxing its monetary policy. They could be forced to inject new liquidity into the economy. The question is what will be the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England, who must keep their monetary policy meetings in the day. Governments are also urged to take action to support the economy.The International Monetary Fund has renewed its request for implementation of "emergency" plans "medium-term fiscal consolidation pro-growth".

How did the aircraft through the crisis?

Experts cabinet Alixpartner highlight the "resilience" rather remarkable aerospace facing a crisis which has "devastated most industries, in the words of Eric Bernardini, Associate Director. After three years of strong growth (+15 to +17%), the slowdown has been severe but the activity remained positive with an increase of 2% in the world. This, in an environment where credit was becoming scarce and expensive.

This resilience reflects the fact that the aviation industry is a long cycle that "smooth" dips and rebounds of activity.When the crisis broke out, the order books are well filled – they are between 6 and 7 years of work with Airbus and Boeing, for example – the U.S. defense budget remains high at over 600 billion dollars and companies will react quickly launching plans for reorganization to optimize their cost base. But the overall increase in activity concealed differences: the regional airline and business aviation have suffered more from the crisis in commercial aviation (aircraft above 110 seats).

What about 2010?

"Do not expect to find pre-crisis levels," warns Eric Bernardini. The first quarter of the year was marked by a 9% drop in shipments compared to the same period of 2009 with 261 aircraft confondues.Cela all categories, while new orders taken are not strong after the fall of 70% of last year.

Several negative factors do not advocate a resumption free. First, the defense budget at best stagnant in the West with a likely decline in the U.S. and cuts already adopted in France, Germany and Great Britain. This marks a break with the period 1999-2009. In ten years, this budget has increased by 167% in the USA, 104% in France, but 181% in Saudi Arabia, Russia 272% and 294% in China. "But in real terms, the EU budget has stagnated, it has instead increased in the rest of the world," the study said.

Then, weak clients in commercial aviation. "With 0.5% margin forecast by 2010, the airline business model is not profitable in the long term," said Thierry Down, Alixpartner partner in the firm.Majors are also increasingly threatened by the rise of new players from the Asia-Pacific region and Middle East policies that lead to acquisitions of new equipment and aggressive pricing as well as the installation in the landscape of low cost.

And in the longer term?

The aviation industry is expected, according Alixpartner remain a growth industry. Thanks to the strength of emerging markets in Asia Pacific and Middle East in the years to come. The study of new aircraft deliveries projected to increase 15% per year by 2028, three times faster than air traffic.

The contract will be subject to strong pressure on prices with the arrival of new competitors in particular on the lucrative segment of the short and medium haul routes.The C-Series from Canada's Bombardier and Mitsubishi MRJ Japanese between 2013 and 2015 and the C-919 Chinese Comac to 2017 (and perhaps also a future large-derived Embraer E-190) will break the duopoly of Airbus Boeing and their A 320 and B 737. The arrival of his new players posed with even more accuité the issue of repowering existing Airbus and Boeing or the launch of new devices.

The pressure on prices will be high on the international defense market, U.S. groups seek growth from outside their borders. And taking probably the way of acquisitions.

What lessons did from the crisis?

Aerospace has been facing the worst crisis of his violent history at a time when she changed her business model.Boeing led the way, followed by Airbus, opting for the outsourcing of whole aircraft to major partners who share the financial risk and industry (risk-sharing partners). The model is not fixed so far, but already he designed a new deal between manufacturers and suppliers of rank 1. "It is evolving towards a model where not only the charges and development will be shared but also the earnings. Some vendors provide penalties for delay if the programs of manufacturers are backlogged. This can be a risky gamble for the supplier but overall, the balance of power balances gradually ", explains Thierry down.

Result: 8.6% in 2009, the profitability of major equipment has become for the first time higher than that of manufacturers that spring to 6.2%.Overall, manufacturers have been penalized by delays in recovery of their new programs (B 787, A 380 and A 400M), which has cost them billions of euros and has weighed on their accounts. Mais ces chiffres globaux cachent à nouveau de grandes disparités et mettent en lumière la faiblesse des acteurs européens par rapports aux géants américains. "In our study, few major European suppliers are well placed. the winners are those who realize a significant part of their business in the United States as the British Cobham, "said Eric Bernardini. The French equipment already handicapped by a structure of costs in euros on a market where the reference currency is the dollar, are particularly poorly placed with margin levels that are almost the double.

It is therefore urgent to organize and optimize its cost structure.Some have understood like a Zodiac, which has returned to acquisitions and has balanced its business conducted in dollars and one conducted in euro. French SMEs are particularly vulnerable because they are too small and no financial base. "Some have understood that they must join forces and others not," note the experts at AlixPartners. In Aerostructures (elements that when assembled form the fuselage of the plane) there is urgency with four players in France (15 in Europe) against the giant American Spirit and subsidiaries of major Japanese companies Mitsubishi and Kawasaki.

Mergers and acquisitions will they return?

Yes, says the study. Especially since they have not stopped but simply slowed during the crisis operations from 238 to 156 between 2008 and 2009. In the first quarter of 2010, we are 51.The Americans who were most active on this front between 2005 and 2009 with 484 operations should continue to play outposts. If Europeans have been rather discreet in number of transactions in the period with the notable exception of Thales, they have been very active if we take the size criteria for acquisitions. Leader in this category, Italy's Finmeccanica. But in none of the categories cited by the study is EADS, the European giant who nevertheless want to ensure complete acquisitions in order to realign its business in the defense and security.

The Aerostructures segment very crumbled, electrical systems and maintenance and repair should experience the largest wave of consolidation, particularly in Europe. In total, the five main players in these three activities controlled only 40%, 40% and 27% market share.

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In 2008, Apple became the first distributor of music in the United States, before the giant Wal-Mart and Amazon. The group of Cupertino is preparing to renew the feat in the film industry. According to research firm Screen Digest, Apple became the number one video on demand pay to the United States in 2014, before the two top cable operators in the country, Comcast and Time Warner Cable.

This will be overtaken by Apple at the end of this year. Apple is expected to generate $ 281 million in sales by selling movies online this year against 160 million in revenue for the VOD service from Time Warner Cable. The firm is expected to apple store almost 35 million transactions in 2010 against 30.5 million for the second U.S. cable operator. Still Number One, Comcast will make a turnover of 380 million dollars with 88 million transactions."While the pay-TV players offer to lease the works in DOS, Apple sells movies. The pricing is more beneficial to Apple, "said Dan Cryan, responsible Broadband Media at Screen Digest.

In 2014, the reverse hierarchy: Apple should be leading with 470 million dollars in revenue for 56 million transactions, when Comcast will reach 400 million dollars in sales with 108 million records of tenancy, says Screen Digest. At that time, Apple will control 32% of video market demand pay.

Google TV has a playing card

This leadership position gives Apple the opportunity to influence the price of selling movies for download, as the U.S. group has done in music.Another advantage is the unit sales reported more income to the beneficiaries that the subscription models or lease and therefore the iTunes Store a valuable partner for the studios, which multiply the simultaneous releases in theaters and on video.

If the model for the iTunes Store gives a good lead time to Apple in VOD, it is not certain that the firm with apple foreclosing the movie as it did for digital music. "There was an effect on iPod music because of the integration platform for downloading with the terminal was better, because the iPod allowed to make music where consumers want to have it ie mobility. It is not certain that the iPad plays that role for the film, Dan Cryan analysis. Terminals other than the PC are key to getting consumers to pay for entertainment.But for video, this advantage is less pronounced for the iPad for a TV. This is Google, with its Google TV decoder, which brings Web video into television, has a playing card. "Indeed, the Internet group has not discussed a possible blocking of illegal content which could online access through Google TV. This vagueness could benefit from piracy: "iTunes is selling on average 30 songs per iPod sold, the rest of the music is not purchased it is copied from CD or downloaded illegally. There could have the same effect on Google TV. The party has just begun in the video, "said Dan Cryan.

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The garden party at the Elysee was it canceled too late? The caterers will they be reimbursed? Taxpayers will pay the note they? After the announcement of the cancellation of approvals under the Ministries of Interior, Overseas, in the prefectures and sub-prefectures, these issues are on everyone's lips. Especially since the member Rene Dosière (related PS) spoke for the receipt of an invoice 313 618 2009 euros. The debate, then fed by Ségolène Royal in an interview with the Nouvel Observateur, however, is minimized by the main actors of the case.

"There was no cancellation in the legal sense. These are the tenders that have been canceled. Today, nobody can say 'I lost the case, because no one had been chosen "slice Lars Bernard, vice president of Synhorcat, a leading professional trade."So there is no impact because in this profession, we do not prepare anything in advance. A caterer is not Picard, irritated the union representative.

Same story on the side of the Elysee usual caterers. "We were still at the stage of tendering. We filed our application and we expect the answer. We have therefore incurred no expenses, "said Francois Raynier, owner of upscale catering Raynier Marchetti, who denies the passage strengthened its team of 150 people in anticipation of the Garden Party. "150 is our average size," says he.

"From homemade

The prefecture also announced that the cancellations last minute should incur any costs because the buffets are mostly prepared in-house. "We use the kitchen of the prefecture," says one in Rennes.In the Sarthe, everything is "homemade" due to "credit limit". The few jurisdictions involving caterers explain – as is the case in Mayenne – they were still "at the stage estimates.

In the Alpes-Maritimes, the services of the prefecture are in this case state spending "very minimal" to "a few hundred euros": "We're pooling with the city of Nice and the General Council of Alpes-Maritimes limit spending from outside caterers, "says a spokeswoman.

Flexibility

Even if there had been a contract between two parties, there is no fixed schedule for repayment in the profession, making negotiations on a case by case basis between the provider and client Guaranteed payday loans. "It's the law of business but we always find common ground," says Bernard Bras.In case of cancellation, the situation remains manageable, "he assures," It is a profession without visibility. Sometimes some customers confirm the case only 3-4 days before the big day We are accustomed to this kind of situation. "

At the forefront of the controversy, the food critics temper this speech. According to them, traders are well advised not to claim compensation for the expected win lucrative contracts in the future. "It's flattering to prepare the buffet or the Elysee Matignon is a commercial asset, an honor, a good card," says Claude Lebey, editor and author of restaurant guides.

Rebound

The representative of Synhorcat still regrets the loss of activity represented by these cancellations. "We are talking thousands of hours of work.For the Elysee, the decision could also have been taken earlier this year when the budget is fixed ….

For the future, the profession remains optimistic. The idea of a snowball effect of cancellations is scanned. "On the corporate side, which represent nearly 80% of our business, we see a rather significant recovery from last year," says Lars Bernard. "These are not exceptional receptions for when the box is bad, do not 'do too much peter cap'. But when there is a quick turnaround, we must celebrate. This is happening today. " The other big market traders – that of individuals – is also on the mend: "over time, we notice that people continue to celebrate events," notes vice president of Synhorcat. The public sector, the smallest of openings, should be the one to be hit hard.

"End 2008-2009, business has plummeted because of last minute cancellations of contracts. In the worst of the crisis, some professionals have lost 40% activity, ensures Lars Bernard. 2010 is therefore a year of healing. Regarding cancellations, we are entitled to think that this will not be like that all year. "

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Societe Generale and Econom announced Thursday they entered into exclusive negotiations for the acquisition of ECS Group specializes in managing and steering systems of information, the group Econonom.

The offer of this year, specializes in the management of infrastructure and telecom companies, valuing the securities ECS 210 million, the dividend 2009. The transaction will be financed by a particular acquisition debt of 120 million euros. Following the transaction, Societe Generale will own 9% of ECS and "remain a privileged partner" the bank wrote in a statement.

The group Elitegroup Computer Systems (ECS), currently owned 100% Societe Generale, is present in 17 countries, mainly in Europe, and has 1,500 employees.In 2009, it achieved a consolidated turnover of 840 million euros and EBITDA of 28.1 million euros.

Becoming number one

The operation "is a genuinely unique opportunity to strengthen Econocom very significant position in all its markets in Europe" said Jean-Louis Bouchard, president of the economic group in a statement. "We could be the first European group of independent management of technology infrastructure manufacturers and operators with the ambition to become number 1 mobility services to businesses," said he.

With nearly 4000 employees and a turnover of 1.6 billion euros, the new entity would have "the skills and means" according to Jean-Louis Bouchard.The statement said the group would benefit from strong complementarities and the reconciliation process would be facilitated by "the cultural closeness of the teams, and ECS Econocom having the same founder, Jean-Louis Bouchard.

At the Paris Bourse, the Société Générale loses 2.70% to 33.375 euros on a market down 1.90%.