Nov 27 2009
After four quarters of decline (-9.3% a year since the second quarter 2008), the slight upward trend is confirmed by figures from INSEE based on those of Notaries from promises of sale signed in Q2 year. While some professional networks, which Laforet Immobilier Wednesday, talk of a recovery, the increase in prices is to be interpreted with great caution.
Indeed, over the past twelve months, property prices remain former fallen sharply, from about 8%, and the number of transactions continues to fall. From September 2008 to September 2009, 550,000 housing transactions have been recorded in metropolitan France, down 25% compared to transactions a year earlier.
Increase of 0.7% in Ile-de-France
During the third quarter of 2009, prices of existing homes rose by 0.7% in Ile-de-France, driven by rising house prices (+1.9%). In one year, the decline is 8.3%: -7.5% for apartments and -9.5% for houses. In Paris, apartment prices rose 1.4% (-7.2% yoy) and those houses by 5.8% (-8.7% yoy). In the provinces, INSEE noted an increase in the third quarter versus the second quarter, 0.1% (+0.6% for the apartment and -0.3% for houses). In one year, the price of existing homes in the province decreased by 7.9% (-6.9% for apartments and -8.5% for houses).
A slow recovery
Improving conditions of loans to individuals for several months have been felt in the housing market. For the economist Michael Mouillart, the market is overtaking its lowest point."The worst is behind us, but the recovery will be slow. The rise in unemployment will slow the pace of recovery, but will not compromise, "analysis" he added that during the year 2010, sales volume should reach the former levels of about 500,000 to 525,000, and prices rise by about 2% to 3%. Mathilde Lemoine, Director of Economic Studies of the HSBC bank, however, is more reserved, "in 2010, stagnant wages due to rising unemployment, rising prices rose in nine and stabilization loan rates should influence the solvency of households and hence on home sales. "
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